Another example - nearly 13,000 people have died in Lombardy in Italy, with a population of just over 10 million That's .13% of the entire region. For COVID-19 to have an infection fatality rate of 0.1-0.2% you'd need 70%+ of the entire population to have been infected!
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I would say, given our current information, that a realistic lower bound for the infection-fatality rate is 0.3%. This would mean that NYC is nearly at herd immunity level, and in my opinion is somewhat optimistic, but it's certainly possible
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(The caveat here of course being that if death numbers are inaccurate, all of this may be wrong)
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Nz will show good numbers In a couple of weeks - so far 14 dead and something like 900 recovered out of 1500 diagnosed.. new cases are in single digits. Give it 2 weeks and nearly all will be recovered, or dead. Random testing of asymptomatics shows no infections.
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And there system has never been close to overwhelmed - thus seems very unlikely than .1% is real.
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Similar with Lombardy and Madrid. Here in Sweden even the scientists running the show still think this. Stanford's Ioannidis claimed the same in an interview just last week. Indefensible.
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That's a blended rate and depends on the population. The one consistent thing is that young people are at very low risk, that's true across the board. The risk for older indivs is much higher. The more that are infected, higher the fatalities. Esp for cases where hosp transmit
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Nothing to be confused about. Most are just repeating what someone else said.
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Still under the %1
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Yes, but seasonal flu IFR is in the order of 0.1%, and we're talking entire populations here.
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