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GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
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@GidMK

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Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

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    1. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 21 Apr 2020

      Health Nerd Retweeted Daniel Reeders  🏳️‍⚧️

      I think this is an important point. While R0 for #COVID19 is relatively high at 2.5-3, it doesn't come close to some airborne diseases like tuberculosis (R0=10), chickenpox (R0=10-12), and measles (R0=13-18)https://twitter.com/engagedpractx/status/1252498745247199232 …

      Health Nerd added,

      Daniel Reeders  🏳️‍⚧️ @engagedpractx
      Oh god, this again. If SARS-CoV-2 were capable of airborne transmission there would be signs of that in the epidemiology that you could see unaided from the moon. These studies ignore the 'enough' question — is there enough virus to cause infection? https://www.theage.com.au/national/warning-light-coronavirus-can-last-longer-in-air-than-first-thought-20200420-p54li8.html …
      Show this thread
      4 replies 18 retweets 63 likes
      Show this thread
    2. Unni Gopinathan‏ @Unni_Gopinathan 21 Apr 2020
      Replying to @GidMK

      Where did you obtain data that R0 of TB is 10? That sounds incredibly high. Contact tracing guidelines here at least does not indicate that R0 of 10 can be correct. Perhaps R0 of TB can be 10 or so in a mine, but not more generally? 1/2

      1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
    3. Unni Gopinathan‏ @Unni_Gopinathan 21 Apr 2020
      Replying to @Unni_Gopinathan @GidMK

      For example, this paper by @andersskyrud on prioritising TB screening in a Norwegian setting obtained R0 values from literature, assumed R0 2 and conducted sensitivity analyses assuming the range of 0.5 - 3. https://www.eurosurveillance.org/content/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2019.24.38.1800676 … 2/2

      1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
    4. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 21 Apr 2020
      Replying to @Unni_Gopinathan @andersskyrud

      This is untreated pulmonary infections, R0 drops substantially with treatment

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    5. Unni Gopinathan‏ @Unni_Gopinathan 21 Apr 2020
      Replying to @GidMK @andersskyrud

      Sounds odd to base contact tracing guidance on determining near contacts of treated TB patients. Example: Norwegian guidance aim to trace,in addition to households,those that have been exposed 8 hours or more to pat. with microscopy conf. dx. Doesn't align with R0 of 10.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    6. Unni Gopinathan‏ @Unni_Gopinathan 21 Apr 2020
      Replying to @Unni_Gopinathan @GidMK @andersskyrud

      I also thought treated TB patients don't transmit, or that the risk of transmission is minimized (to far below R0<1). Here is the guidance (in Eng) of our national institute of public health: https://www.fhi.no/en/id/infectious-diseases/TB/tuberculosis-tb-in-norway---fact-sh/ …. Doesn't align with Ro of 10 of untreated TB patients.

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
      Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 21 Apr 2020
      Replying to @Unni_Gopinathan @andersskyrud

      Hmm I'll check my references. Systematic review of TB transmission in mostly treated patients found 0.5-4 but I can't find the source of the number I had in my head. Could be wrong!https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6092233/ …

      1:55 AM - 21 Apr 2020
      • 2 Likes
      • Viljami Unni Gopinathan
      1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Unni Gopinathan‏ @Unni_Gopinathan 21 Apr 2020
          Replying to @GidMK @andersskyrud

          Can imagine that number if estimated in overcrowded confined area or transmission from patients where condition has progressed for long untreated. But I'm not a TB expert, only know enough to understand rationale for our national guidance. Thanks for engaging in the discussion!

          1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
        3. Anders‏ @andersskyrud 21 Apr 2020
          Replying to @Unni_Gopinathan @GidMK

          As far as I know, the transmission dynamics of a TB epidemic is very slow compared to other diseases. The main reason being the high threshold for defining a "contact", the latency and the slow, chronic progression of the disease. A seminal article herehttps://www.nature.com/articles/nm0895-815 …

          1 reply 1 retweet 3 likes
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