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GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Verified account
@GidMK

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Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

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    1. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 20 Apr 2020

      Hey #epitwitter, can anyone explain something to me? I honestly don't understand why you would normalize to the population from a sample of COVID-19 serological tests. The reason we extrapolate in this way is to gain an idea of the population prevalence...

      1 reply 5 retweets 18 likes
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    2. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 20 Apr 2020

      (cont)...but in this case, we KNOW that COVID-19 is likely to be clustered. Unless your normalization for the population assumes a very uneven spread by design, presumably all you're ever going to do is overestimate the proportion of people who've been infected?

      3 replies 3 retweets 10 likes
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    3. Dr. Naomh Gallagher‏ @naomhgallagher 20 Apr 2020
      Replying to @GidMK

      I think it would only ever attempt to estimate disease history in specific populations, so ignoring the vulnerable groups and using subgroups to make the estimates cohort specific. Though the bigger problem here is finding a robust antibody test!

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    4. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 20 Apr 2020
      Replying to @naomhgallagher

      That makes sense to me with a mature epidemic, with months of disease spread, but I just can't see the logic if your confirmed case number is less than 0.1% of the population. Seems an easy way to wildly bias your results to me

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    5. Dr. Naomh Gallagher‏ @naomhgallagher 20 Apr 2020
      Replying to @GidMK

      Yea I agree, but I think in the absence of mass population testing it would be the only option. And the current confirmed case % is so heavily influenced by testing, there’ll be many hoping it is actually a lot higher than that!

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
      Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 20 Apr 2020
      Replying to @naomhgallagher

      I take your point, but I'm not sure that using another type of very flawed estimate as the truth makes more sense in the absence of population testing. Both estimates give us information, neither is true!

      10:59 PM - 20 Apr 2020
      0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes

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