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GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Verified account
@GidMK

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Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

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    1. it's dr joel‏ @itsdoctorjoel 19 Apr 2020
      Replying to @Angry_Staffer @alt_localgov

      What??

      1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
    2. Angry Staffer‏ @Angry_Staffer 19 Apr 2020
      Replying to @itsdoctorjoel @alt_localgov

      There was a lot in there, which part are you asking about? 🤣🤣

      1 reply 0 retweets 4 likes
    3. it's dr joel‏ @itsdoctorjoel 19 Apr 2020
      Replying to @Angry_Staffer @alt_localgov

      What was that quote? Covid-19 has much higher R naught than SARS/MERS SARS/MERS hasn't been in North America, has it?

      1 reply 0 retweets 6 likes
    4. Angry Staffer‏ @Angry_Staffer 19 Apr 2020
      Replying to @itsdoctorjoel @alt_localgov

      SARS was briefly in North America. And we don’t know the exact r-naught of COVID-19 yet, but it’s at least similar to SARS/MERSpic.twitter.com/zZxLTTDBbw

      2 replies 5 retweets 27 likes
    5. it's dr joel‏ @itsdoctorjoel 19 Apr 2020
      Replying to @Angry_Staffer @alt_localgov

      I'm an oncologist, not an epidemiologist or infectious disease specialist, but that doesn't seem right to me. If SARS or MERS had those kind of r values, they would have been devastating--much more than this. @GidMK ?

      3 replies 0 retweets 3 likes
    6. Aurora Browne‏Verified account @aurorabrowne 19 Apr 2020
      Replying to @itsdoctorjoel @alt_localgov @GidMK

      I think that’s their point. They had worse potential but good management kept them in check. We are currently seeing what bad management can do with even a lower risk disease. @AngrierWHStaff have I got that right?

      1 reply 1 retweet 14 likes
    7. less Dance, more Revolution  🌹‏ @ranatalus 19 Apr 2020
      Replying to @aurorabrowne @itsdoctorjoel and

      Another huge piece is that Covid carriers are simultaneously infectious and asymptomatic early on, often for upwards of a week. MERS/SARS doesn’t/didn’t have that issue.

      1 reply 1 retweet 7 likes
    8. less Dance, more Revolution  🌹‏ @ranatalus 19 Apr 2020
      Replying to @ranatalus @aurorabrowne and

      While MERS was significantly more infectious (6.5-8 r0), SARS was similar to most speculated r0s of Covid (2.6-3 r0). Both of those were in clinical settings, though; in public, both had an estimated r0 of less than 1.

      1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
    9. less Dance, more Revolution  🌹‏ @ranatalus 19 Apr 2020
      Replying to @ranatalus @aurorabrowne and

      Admittedly I’m not a medical professional, just someone who’s been constantly drinking from the information fire hose during the pandemic as far back as February.

      1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
    10. Paper Hustle‏ @sendero_dorado 19 Apr 2020
      Replying to @ranatalus @aurorabrowne and

      I'm an ID doc and everybody here is wrong. Basic R0 of COVID-19 is likely as high as 5.7, which is about double that of SARS, and is why SARS was easier to suppress. MERS is not nearly as infectious, but kills close to half of those who get it. https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/7/20-0282_article?deliveryName=USCDC_333-DM25287 …

      3 replies 1 retweet 5 likes
      Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 19 Apr 2020
      Replying to @sendero_dorado @ranatalus and

      One thing to remember about the R0 is that it isn't a fixed known factor - we derive various estimates based on different factors Initial estimates from contact-tracing and testing in China ~1.5-2.5, updated to ~2.5-3

      5:33 PM - 19 Apr 2020
      • 4 Likes
      • less Dance, more Revolution 🌹 Paper Hustle
      1 reply 0 retweets 4 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 19 Apr 2020
          Replying to @GidMK @sendero_dorado and

          The CDC has now modeled the reproduction rate during the earliest phases of the pandemic, i.e. early Jan, and found that in that period it may have been as high as 5.7 Challenge is, during that period most people were being told there was no disease! Very different

          1 reply 0 retweets 4 likes
        3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 19 Apr 2020
          Replying to @GidMK @sendero_dorado and

          And in terms of SARS and MERS, those viruses were substantially more lethal, with extremely quick symptomatic onset, making quarantine far more effective

          2 replies 0 retweets 5 likes
        4. Show replies

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