What??
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Replying to @itsdoctorjoel @alt_localgov
There was a lot in there, which part are you asking about?

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Replying to @Angry_Staffer @alt_localgov
What was that quote? Covid-19 has much higher R naught than SARS/MERS SARS/MERS hasn't been in North America, has it?
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Replying to @itsdoctorjoel @alt_localgov
SARS was briefly in North America. And we don’t know the exact r-naught of COVID-19 yet, but it’s at least similar to SARS/MERSpic.twitter.com/zZxLTTDBbw
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Replying to @Angry_Staffer @alt_localgov
I'm an oncologist, not an epidemiologist or infectious disease specialist, but that doesn't seem right to me. If SARS or MERS had those kind of r values, they would have been devastating--much more than this.
@GidMK ?3 replies 0 retweets 3 likes -
I think that’s their point. They had worse potential but good management kept them in check. We are currently seeing what bad management can do with even a lower risk disease. @AngrierWHStaff have I got that right?
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Replying to @aurorabrowne @itsdoctorjoel and
Another huge piece is that Covid carriers are simultaneously infectious and asymptomatic early on, often for upwards of a week. MERS/SARS doesn’t/didn’t have that issue.
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Replying to @ranatalus @aurorabrowne and
While MERS was significantly more infectious (6.5-8 r0), SARS was similar to most speculated r0s of Covid (2.6-3 r0). Both of those were in clinical settings, though; in public, both had an estimated r0 of less than 1.
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Replying to @ranatalus @aurorabrowne and
Admittedly I’m not a medical professional, just someone who’s been constantly drinking from the information fire hose during the pandemic as far back as February.
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Replying to @ranatalus @aurorabrowne and
I'm an ID doc and everybody here is wrong. Basic R0 of COVID-19 is likely as high as 5.7, which is about double that of SARS, and is why SARS was easier to suppress. MERS is not nearly as infectious, but kills close to half of those who get it. https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/7/20-0282_article?deliveryName=USCDC_333-DM25287 …
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One thing to remember about the R0 is that it isn't a fixed known factor - we derive various estimates based on different factors Initial estimates from contact-tracing and testing in China ~1.5-2.5, updated to ~2.5-3
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Replying to @GidMK @sendero_dorado and
The CDC has now modeled the reproduction rate during the earliest phases of the pandemic, i.e. early Jan, and found that in that period it may have been as high as 5.7 Challenge is, during that period most people were being told there was no disease! Very different
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Replying to @GidMK @sendero_dorado and
And in terms of SARS and MERS, those viruses were substantially more lethal, with extremely quick symptomatic onset, making quarantine far more effective
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