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GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
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@GidMK

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Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

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    1. Natalie E. Dean, PhD‏Verified account @nataliexdean 17 Apr 2020

      A rapid, unsolicited peer review on emerging serosurvey data from Santa Clara County, and why I remain skeptical of claims that we are identifying only 1 out of every 50 to 85 confirmed cases. 1/10https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.14.20062463v1 …

      116 replies 842 retweets 2,080 likes
      Show this thread
    2. Natalie E. Dean, PhD‏Verified account @nataliexdean 17 Apr 2020

      The study recruited patients in the county through Facebook ads. To make the survey representative, enrollment was capped when quotas were reached in certain areas, and encouraged in areas with lower participation. A smart strategy for easy recruitment, in my opinion. 2/10

      7 replies 34 retweets 269 likes
      Show this thread
    3. Natalie E. Dean, PhD‏Verified account @nataliexdean 17 Apr 2020

      After completing an online demographic survey (zip code, age, sex, race/ethnicity, comorbidities, prior symptoms), consenting adults could bring a child with them for drive-thru testing at one of three locations. Their final sample size was 2,718 adults and 612 children. 3/10

      3 replies 25 retweets 175 likes
      Show this thread
    4. Natalie E. Dean, PhD‏Verified account @nataliexdean 17 Apr 2020

      Participation rate was not even across the region. This is relevant because the authors report both a crude % seropositive and a population-adjusted % seropositive. Adjustment is achieved through survey weights, to account for undersampling. 4/10pic.twitter.com/HHj0jPXbNI

      3 replies 30 retweets 185 likes
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    5. Natalie E. Dean, PhD‏Verified account @nataliexdean 17 Apr 2020

      The crude seroprevalence is 1.5% (1.11-1.97%). The population weighted seroprevalence is 2.81% (2.24-3.37%). These are different because under-represented combinations of zip code, sex, and race will receive more weight. 5/10

      3 replies 27 retweets 191 likes
      Show this thread
    6. Natalie E. Dean, PhD‏Verified account @nataliexdean 17 Apr 2020

      Having had experience with these types of weighted surveys, I am always a little skeptical when the weighted result is very different from the unweighted result. Here, nearly double. This can be due to a few highly influential observations. Weights can be wonky. 6/10

      5 replies 40 retweets 335 likes
      Show this thread
      Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 17 Apr 2020
      Replying to @nataliexdean

      I also don't understand the rationale behind weighting at all in this sample. For this to make sense, the infectious outbreak would have to be evenly distributed across the population which is extremely unlikely surely?

      8:23 PM - 17 Apr 2020
      • 1 Retweet
      • muffmuff
      0 replies 1 retweet 0 likes

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