19/n In addition to this, the only modelling study to look at school closures separately, which also assumed that they were effective, found a "relatively marginal" impact from the interventionpic.twitter.com/n9dp3wHUJK
Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him
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19/n In addition to this, the only modelling study to look at school closures separately, which also assumed that they were effective, found a "relatively marginal" impact from the interventionpic.twitter.com/n9dp3wHUJK
20/n We also don't know to what extent non-school social gatherings play a role in transmission, and whether these may lower the impact of school closures as wellpic.twitter.com/sCEXqbgzRf
21/n It's also worth noting that the 2-4% figure that you may've heard on the news or from certain celebrity doctors is from a model ASSUMING that school closures do indeed work
22/n Which brings us to the conclusions of this policy-focused review What should countries do? Well, Taiwan and China may be a guide - school closures early, but one of the first measures to be scaled backpic.twitter.com/6un7nUszJ1
23/n However, given that we aren't sure how effective school closures may have been - potentially quite effective - we should consider OTHER ways to minimize transmission while opening thempic.twitter.com/TtcJIF66P9
24/n It's unlikely that we can keep schools closed forever, but there may be ways to reduce harms without the enormous cost of closing them completelypic.twitter.com/yN1MGAviMw
25/n So...do school closures work to prevent the spread of #COVID19?
WE DON'T KNOW
They probably help, but maybe not that much and have some definite harms
26/n And while dumping on Dr. Oz is fun, he's not entirely misrepresenting the evidence when he says that school closures may have an overall detrimental effect during this pandemic
27/n (Although, to be fair, he says it in a MUCH more absurd way. Fuck, who calls 2-3% of deaths trivial? Ugh)
An older @TheLancetInfDis review (2009) nicely explores these issues toohttps://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(09)70176-8/fulltext …
I'll definitely have a read!
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