I think this is a very important point that has not gotten a lot of air time.https://twitter.com/CharlesCMann/status/1250135143773331458 …
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Also AFAIK there is variation between countries on how COVID-19 deaths are counted. Not sure of how much exactly, but some do test the dead and some don't for example. Some count people who died at their homes and some don't. Some countries had lots of lag in reporting them etc.
I don't know how it is for influenza deaths, is there a similar heterogeneity in statistics between countries or not?
Check my Twitter feed, I've literally been saying this for weeks. I'm also convinced the model has a hard time filtering out confounders of excess winter mortality. Was that heart attack due to all pumpkin pie and egg nog or a case of the flu?
Consider 2009. Flu season was offset from winter in North America by a few months. It's pretty easy to pick out the excess mortality for the pandemic as 12,500, comparing it to baseline months in other years...
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