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GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
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@GidMK

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Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

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    Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 12 Apr 2020

    Health Nerd Retweeted Ed Rennie

    What a truly ridiculous graph Death rates per population will by definition be way smaller in big countries at the start of a pandemic For reference, China is ~50× lower than the US, India is >100× lowerhttps://twitter.com/edrennie77/status/1249028359855759361 …

    Health Nerd added,

    Ed Rennie @edrennie77
    Finally Covid-19 fatalities adjusted for population pic.twitter.com/NYnw6BwSRu
    Show this thread
    9:42 PM - 12 Apr 2020
    • 8 Retweets
    • 35 Likes
    • Carolynne B *Fully Pfizered*😷 Leo Reis MD PhD UroScience 💜💜💜 rarehero 💜💜💜 Nathan Brouwer Para Nojd Michael Ernst margaridacal Robert King KING SOMBRA IS CANONICALLY BI
    9 replies 8 retweets 35 likes
      1. New conversation
      2. Dr Paul Mackey‏ @auscandoc 12 Apr 2020
        Replying to @GidMK

        Yes I really struggle with this argument of “yeah but what is the death rate by population”. Sorry but a life is a life and a loss is a loss and trying to alter the numbers this way to make them look less dire is disingenuous.

        0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
      3. This Tweet is unavailable.
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      1. Dr Paul Mackey‏ @auscandoc 12 Apr 2020
        Replying to @GidMK

        Dr Paul Mackey Retweeted John Burn-Murdoch

        Here says it better than me though. https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1249445458264698880?s=21 …https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1249445458264698880 …

        Dr Paul Mackey added,

        John Burn-MurdochVerified account @jburnmurdoch
        And a chart showing why we're using absolute numbers rather than population-adjusted rates: https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1244380095164420101 …
        Show this thread
        0 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
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      1. Dr Gill Armstrong MCIAT ARB  ❤️ 🏙 📈‏ @arch_lintel 12 Apr 2020
        Replying to @GidMK

        I don’t find total deaths that helpful either. Maybe deaths per metropolitan msq. Need data to show connection between urban density & infection to prove or dismiss affect of design & planning. Too many unevidenced claims being banded about

        0 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
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      1. New conversation
      2. Kit Yates‏ @Kit_Yates_Maths 12 Apr 2020
        Replying to @GidMK

        I disagree to a certain extent. Certainly if one is interested in rate of spread then it’s not that useful. However, if one is going to criticise a countries actions based absolute figures I.e. “UK could end up being worst affected country in Europe” https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52261859 … ...

        1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
      3. Kit Yates‏ @Kit_Yates_Maths 12 Apr 2020
        Replying to @Kit_Yates_Maths @GidMK

        Then it makes sense to take into account of the population size. The (BASIC) SIR model predicts a final fixed *proportion* of infected individual in a population irrespective of size, not absolute numbers. To completely throw the idea of per capita numbers out is not helpful IMHO

        1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
      4. Show replies
      1. Duncan‏ @Acromeister 13 Apr 2020
        Replying to @GidMK

        True, but it does allow us to compare countries of a similar size: France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK.

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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      1. Chopper Face‏ @chopperface69 13 Apr 2020
        Replying to @GidMK

        Why? A per population indicator is usually better for most metric. What makes it less useful for a pandemic? Population density? It’s certainly not intuitive and obvious why this metric is flawed.

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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      1. New conversation
      2. Dr Graham Lappin‏ @LappinGraham 13 Apr 2020
        Replying to @GidMK @pash22

        As a Pharmacokineticists I’m used to normalising (eg dose) to compare like with like. Why not normalise to population? I’m not an epidemiologist and so I’m seriously looking to be educated.

        2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
      3. VaccineUK‏ @VaccineUK 13 Apr 2020
        Replying to @LappinGraham @GidMK @pash22

        This q sparked an idea for an analogy: how often in pharmacology would you normalise the rate of delivery of a dose based on eg weight/muscle density? Would a graph of that when you're a quarter of the way through delivery reveal useful information?

        1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
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