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GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Verified account
@GidMK

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Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

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    1. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 6 Apr 2020

      7/ So let's consider what would be required for R to drop below 1 in this context R0 = 3 If 10% of the population is immune to COVID-19, this will be reduced to R = 3*(1-0.1) = 2.7 The disease still spreads

      1 reply 0 retweets 8 likes
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    2. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 6 Apr 2020

      8/ Luckily, this is just maths, so we can work it out We want R to be below 1 This makes it into a simple equation: R<1

      1 reply 0 retweets 7 likes
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    3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 6 Apr 2020

      9/ Substituting in for R, we get: R<1 => R0*(% susceptible)<1 => %susceptible<1/R0 Solving for R0 = 3, we get %susceptible<33.3% In other words, as long as more than 33% of the population is susceptible, the disease spreads

      1 reply 0 retweets 13 likes
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    4. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 6 Apr 2020

      10/ To put it another way, we need 67% (2/3) of the population to be IMMUNE to the disease for it to stop spreading This is what's known as the HERD IMMUNITY THRESHOLD

      2 replies 2 retweets 15 likes
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    5. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 6 Apr 2020

      Health Nerd Retweeted Health Nerd

      11/ But that brings us back to this earlier point The only way, currently, to be immune to the disease is to GET SICK and then GET BETTERhttps://twitter.com/GidMK/status/1247328596890275840?s=20 …

      Health Nerd added,

      Health NerdVerified account @GidMK
      6.5/ And remember, there's NO VACCINE FOR COVID19 (yet), so all immunity is conferred by getting an infection and recovering That carries very serious risks!
      Show this thread
      1 reply 1 retweet 11 likes
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    6. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 6 Apr 2020

      12/ So what we're really saying is that, for the herd immunity threshold to be reached, ~67% OF THE POPULATION has to be infected That is a HUGE problem

      1 reply 0 retweets 14 likes
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    7. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 6 Apr 2020

      13/ How much of a problem? Well, assuming a relatively generous infection-fatality rate of 0.3%, if 67% of Australians get infected with #COVID19 then ~50,000 people die A high price to pay indeed

      2 replies 1 retweet 13 likes
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    8. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 6 Apr 2020

      14/ Taking more realistic estimates of the fatality rate, we might see 100,000 or more people die before reaching this point Most would, I think, regard that as the most abject of failures

      2 replies 0 retweets 14 likes
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    9. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 6 Apr 2020

      15/ By definition, herd immunity is not and can never be a solution to #COVID19, unless we are comfortable with a staggering death toll fin

      5 replies 5 retweets 33 likes
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    10. Beardless Batnurse‏ @BobbyBoop86 6 Apr 2020
      Replying to @GidMK

      Bit isn't the R0 highly dependent upon social measures. E.g. if we're all out at the beach together the R0 will be higher, if we all social distance properly the R0 will be lower? If that's the case how does one calculate an R0 given how dynamic our social measures are?

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 6 Apr 2020
      Replying to @BobbyBoop86

      Nope. R0 is about the disease when no measures are in place and no one is immune. R is the one that changes

      6:14 PM - 6 Apr 2020
      • 1 Like
      • Beardless Batnurse
      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        1. Beardless Batnurse‏ @BobbyBoop86 6 Apr 2020
          Replying to @GidMK

          Ah cool

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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