6/ For a disease to stop spreading, each person has to - on average - infect fewer than 1 person Therefore, the R has to drop below 1
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16/ IMPORTANT ADDENDUM: "never" is the wrong word in the previous tweet. If we get a vaccine, or if the death toll drops significantly (due perhaps to better treatments) herd immunity becomes a very viable option
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Bit isn't the R0 highly dependent upon social measures. E.g. if we're all out at the beach together the R0 will be higher, if we all social distance properly the R0 will be lower? If that's the case how does one calculate an R0 given how dynamic our social measures are?
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Nope. R0 is about the disease when no measures are in place and no one is immune. R is the one that changes
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Sorry if this comes across as ignorant but: If herd immunity is not possible without an immense amount of deaths, what needs to happen that the lockdown should end? A vaccine?
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Am I right in thinking that if we are prepared to accept 100,000 deaths over a longer period, years say, because we don’t get a vaccine, there’s no reason to suspect immunity will last that long anyway?
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This is exactly why I can’t understand why this is a talking point anywhere. In order to get to herd immunity you’re literally going to “thin the herd” by people DYING, a lot of susceptible people are going to die to get there.
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