4/ Herd immunity is a function of the basic reproduction number of a disease (R0). This is the average number of people each sick person infects in a totally vulnerable population
For measles, this number is 18
Influenza is roughly 1.5
For #COVID19, R0 is around 3
-
-
14/ Taking more realistic estimates of the fatality rate, we might see 100,000 or more people die before reaching this point Most would, I think, regard that as the most abject of failures
Show this thread -
15/ By definition, herd immunity is not and can never be a solution to
#COVID19, unless we are comfortable with a staggering death toll finShow this thread -
16/ IMPORTANT ADDENDUM: "never" is the wrong word in the previous tweet. If we get a vaccine, or if the death toll drops significantly (due perhaps to better treatments) herd immunity becomes a very viable option
Show this thread
End of conversation
New conversation -
-
-
On top of which, it assumes we can't get it twice and that it doesn't lay dormant & potentially reactivate later, like shingles?
Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
-
Loading seems to be taking a while.
Twitter may be over capacity or experiencing a momentary hiccup. Try again or visit Twitter Status for more information.