3/ The Guardian produced a great model of how herd immunity works here If enough people are immune, the disease spreads a bit, then stops https://www.theguardian.com/society/ng-interactive/2015/feb/05/-sp-watch-how-measles-outbreak-spreads-when-kids-get-vaccinated …
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13/ How much of a problem? Well, assuming a relatively generous infection-fatality rate of 0.3%, if 67% of Australians get infected with
#COVID19 then ~50,000 people die A high price to pay indeedShow this thread -
14/ Taking more realistic estimates of the fatality rate, we might see 100,000 or more people die before reaching this point Most would, I think, regard that as the most abject of failures
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15/ By definition, herd immunity is not and can never be a solution to
#COVID19, unless we are comfortable with a staggering death toll finShow this thread -
16/ IMPORTANT ADDENDUM: "never" is the wrong word in the previous tweet. If we get a vaccine, or if the death toll drops significantly (due perhaps to better treatments) herd immunity becomes a very viable option
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End of conversation
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