2/ Herd immunity is a simple concept It simply defines the situation where enough people are immune to a disease that even if people do get sick, they can't spread the infection
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12/ So what we're really saying is that, for the herd immunity threshold to be reached, ~67% OF THE POPULATION has to be infected That is a HUGE problem
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13/ How much of a problem? Well, assuming a relatively generous infection-fatality rate of 0.3%, if 67% of Australians get infected with
#COVID19 then ~50,000 people die A high price to pay indeedShow this thread -
14/ Taking more realistic estimates of the fatality rate, we might see 100,000 or more people die before reaching this point Most would, I think, regard that as the most abject of failures
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15/ By definition, herd immunity is not and can never be a solution to
#COVID19, unless we are comfortable with a staggering death toll finShow this thread -
16/ IMPORTANT ADDENDUM: "never" is the wrong word in the previous tweet. If we get a vaccine, or if the death toll drops significantly (due perhaps to better treatments) herd immunity becomes a very viable option
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End of conversation
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