Would be very interested in what some ID epis here think about this post on mask effectiveness written by Scott Alexander over at SSC https://slatestarcodex.com/2020/03/23/face-masks-much-more-than-you-wanted-to-know/ …
Pretty optimistic about the benefits of masks. For example, if you read the biggest RCT of masks for the community closely, they found diminishing benefits for longer incubation periods, with efficacy reducing significantly at 2 days. COVID-19 has a period of 4-7 days...
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...which means this finding is potentially not true. Also, the piece places a lot of emphasis on respiratory particles getting on the face. This isn't really the main method of infection for most people - it's rare that people are coughing directly at you even on trains etc
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The scenario presented in the article, that of sitting next to an infected person on the train, is a risk less because of airborne droplets and more because of shared fomites like the seats/railings etc
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