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GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Verified account
@GidMK

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Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

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    1. Jamie Woodhouse‏ @JamieWoodhouse 26 Mar 2020
      Replying to @GidMK @devisridhar

      Sorry. I get the "we just don't know" approach, but it's concerning that you think 50k are infected in UK, other experts (govt.) imply 500k and others suggest 35 million. Wouldn't conducting a random representative test sample of gen pop answer the question?

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    2. Jamie Woodhouse‏ @JamieWoodhouse 26 Mar 2020
      Replying to @JamieWoodhouse @GidMK @devisridhar

      I'll leave you alone, but to close, using your ~50k current infected estimate, interested in your view of: - Total infected estimate 14 days ago - Infection doubling rate since then - IFR% that implies given actual deaths to date. Just trying to understand (as are the public)

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 26 Mar 2020
      Replying to @JamieWoodhouse @devisridhar

      I don't extrapolate from enormous uncertainty, hence the conversation. We don't know the 'true' rate 14 days ago or today, and the CFR% is easily calculable from public data but is estimated to be ~1%

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    4. Jamie Woodhouse‏ @JamieWoodhouse 26 Mar 2020
      Replying to @GidMK @devisridhar

      Agree that any estimates of course need wide ranges + low confidence. I remain mystified as to how we can get so many deaths from the ~50k total infected today you've suggested. Would a YouGov style general population sample test run help? Anyway - Thanks for your patience.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    5. Jamie Woodhouse‏ @JamieWoodhouse 27 Mar 2020
      Replying to @JamieWoodhouse @GidMK @devisridhar

      Jamie Woodhouse Retweeted Jamie Woodhouse

      Neil Ferguson now estimates 5 to 10% of Londoners may be infected. https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/newslondon/up-to-one-in-10-londoners-may-be-infected-with-coronavirus-expert-warns/ar-BB11HBdk … Here's my updated amateur estimate from yesterday's figures.https://twitter.com/JamieWoodhouse/status/1243282373686542338?s=20 …

      Jamie Woodhouse added,

      Jamie Woodhouse @JamieWoodhouse
      How many 🇬🇧 people have #COVID19? ~1.9m (~3%) ~1 in 15 Londoners (~7%) Assume: 578 deaths IFR 0.9% Days to death 17.5 (h/t @cheianov) So ~64k infected 17.5 days ago 3.5 days to double so 5 doublings So infections to date: 2.1m Recovered 7%? Infected today: 1.9m #Lockdown https://twitter.com/DHSCgovuk/status/1243237209039396872 …
      Show this thread
      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    6. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 27 Mar 2020
      Replying to @JamieWoodhouse @devisridhar

      You've misread. He said that IN SIX MONTHS TIME "up to" 5-10% MAY be infected

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    7. Jamie Woodhouse‏ @JamieWoodhouse 27 Mar 2020
      Replying to @GidMK @devisridhar

      Thanks. Talks about this being "over six months" (and we're 2 months in?) - but peaking in 2-3 weeks. That peak would be the 5-10%? I'll have a listen to the session to see if I can understand more.

      2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
    8. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 27 Mar 2020
      Replying to @JamieWoodhouse @devisridhar

      Nah peak would be the most cases per day. The 5-10% would build up over months

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    9. Jamie Woodhouse‏ @JamieWoodhouse 27 Mar 2020
      Replying to @GidMK @devisridhar

      Tks. Just watched it: https://parliamentlive.tv/Event/Index/2b1c71d4-bdf4-44f1-98fe-1563e67060ee …. - Peak ICU in 3-3.5 wks. - So peak current # infected next wk (as takes 2-3 wks to go from infection to being in ICU) - 5-10% London may have infection - Won't go much higher than 5-10% once suppression in place (which is now)?

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    10. Jamie Woodhouse‏ @JamieWoodhouse 27 Mar 2020
      Replying to @JamieWoodhouse @GidMK @devisridhar

      + Not sure how these infections could be widely spread out over a longer time period. The virus has been doubling every 3-4 days, so the vast majority of people ever infected still are today. + IF we stop this now (keep R0<1 via #Lockdown), we won't see many more.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 27 Mar 2020
      Replying to @JamieWoodhouse @devisridhar

      Lol you're misdefining basically everything and coming to totally wrong conclusions. And after hours of trying to explain, I'm out. You're wrong, this is tedious, farewell

      2:30 PM - 27 Mar 2020
      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Jamie Woodhouse‏ @JamieWoodhouse 27 Mar 2020
          Replying to @GidMK @devisridhar

          Even after all your explanations I don’t understand how we have only 30-60k total infections today but 759 deaths? I reckon we have more people infected in the NHS than you estimate are infected in the entire country. I clearly am missing something fundamental in your thinking

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. Jamie Woodhouse‏ @JamieWoodhouse 27 Mar 2020
          Replying to @JamieWoodhouse @GidMK @devisridhar

          I know you've gone, but I've re-read your Medium piece and I think there are two reasons for the radical difference in our estimates: 1) Your 5x current cases estimate is good - but only for the infection # as of ~2-3 weeks ago. They've been doubling every 3-4 days since...

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
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