Sorry. I get the "we just don't know" approach, but it's concerning that you think 50k are infected in UK, other experts (govt.) imply 500k and others suggest 35 million. Wouldn't conducting a random representative test sample of gen pop answer the question?
Lol you're misdefining basically everything and coming to totally wrong conclusions. And after hours of trying to explain, I'm out. You're wrong, this is tedious, farewell
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Even after all your explanations I don’t understand how we have only 30-60k total infections today but 759 deaths? I reckon we have more people infected in the NHS than you estimate are infected in the entire country. I clearly am missing something fundamental in your thinking
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I know you've gone, but I've re-read your Medium piece and I think there are two reasons for the radical difference in our estimates: 1) Your 5x current cases estimate is good - but only for the infection # as of ~2-3 weeks ago. They've been doubling every 3-4 days since...
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