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GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
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@GidMK

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Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

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    1. Jamie Woodhouse‏ @JamieWoodhouse 26 Mar 2020

      Jamie Woodhouse Retweeted Department of Health and Social Care

      How many 🇬🇧 people have #COVID19? ~1.9m (~3%) ~1 in 15 Londoners (~7%) Assume: 578 deaths IFR 0.9% Days to death 17.5 (h/t @cheianov) So ~64k infected 17.5 days ago 3.5 days to double so 5 doublings So infections to date: 2.1m Recovered 7%? Infected today: 1.9m #Lockdownhttps://twitter.com/DHSCgovuk/status/1243237209039396872 …

      Jamie Woodhouse added,

      CORONAVIRUS UPDATE

Across the UK, there have been 104,866 concluded tests of which 93,208 were confirmed negative, and 11,658 positive.

578 patients who tested positive for coronavirus (COVID-19) have sadly died.

26 March 2020
      Department of Health and Social CareVerified account @DHSCgovuk
      UPDATE on coronavirus (#COVID19) testing in the UK: As of 9am 26 March, a total of 104,866 have been tested: 93,208 negative. 11,658 positive. As of 5pm on 25 March, of those hospitalised in the UK, 578 have sadly died. pic.twitter.com/lHKa29lab7
      Show this thread
      3 replies 7 retweets 6 likes
      Show this thread
    2. Jamie Woodhouse‏ @JamieWoodhouse 26 Mar 2020

      Some real epidemiologists find this admittedly amateur, simplistic modelling irritating. I will stop doing it when they offer something better than: - "We have no way of knowing" - 2x-5x "confirmed cases": ~max 58k (implies IFR of 30%!) - 1000x deaths: ~578k (implies IFR of 3%)

      2 replies 0 retweets 4 likes
      Show this thread
    3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 27 Mar 2020
      Replying to @JamieWoodhouse

      Lol, ok then. Here's a reason to stop doing it - your method implies that there are ~300 million infections in Italy right now

      1 reply 1 retweet 5 likes
    4. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 27 Mar 2020
      Replying to @GidMK @JamieWoodhouse

      Actually, considering that they have stopped most testing, you'd have to assume that the death rate is even less reflective of the true number. Probably double that to account for the uncertainty

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    5. Jamie Woodhouse‏ @JamieWoodhouse 27 Mar 2020
      Replying to @GidMK

      It doesn't estimate 300m. Italy inputs are v.different. If we assume: - IFR% 2 and days to death 15 (both worsened as ICU capacity over-run) - Days to double 5.5 (has slowed since lockdown) - 20% have recovered (later in cycle). Then model estimates ~2.2m (4.5%) infected now.

      2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
    6. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 27 Mar 2020
      Replying to @JamieWoodhouse

      Lol, I mean all of this is completely arbitrary anyway so I guess you can manipulate the figures however. The actual doubling time for Italy is longer than that, but that's true for the UK as well so 🤷‍♂️🤷‍♂️🤷‍♂️🤷‍♂️🤷‍♂️

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
      Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 27 Mar 2020
      Replying to @GidMK @JamieWoodhouse

      The CFR is, similarly, a completely arbitrary number. Best estimates put it at 1.4%, although if you use Iceland (because why not) you could assume it to be lower and get a bigger number

      4:37 AM - 27 Mar 2020
      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Jamie Woodhouse‏ @JamieWoodhouse 27 Mar 2020
          Replying to @GidMK

          Not sure inputs are arbitrary. All can be sensibly observed/estimated. Representative public sample testing would answer this! Italy doubling now is 6-7 days, but I'm looking at rates for the last 2-3 weeks. Estimate current infections from those 2-3 weeks ago.

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. Jamie Woodhouse‏ @JamieWoodhouse 27 Mar 2020
          Replying to @JamieWoodhouse @GidMK

          I'm not using CFR at all as it depends on "confirmed cases" which, as you say, are warped by testing approach. 0.9% IFR I used for UK was from Imperial report + seemed to fit early stages in country with good NHS before ICUs overwhelmed. Spikes hard when they are.

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
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