It also depends on your demographics. COVID-19 does indeed kill ~30% of those aged 80+. If you have a disproportionate number of elderly people infected (as in Italy), you see much higher death rates
Nah peak would be the most cases per day. The 5-10% would build up over months
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Tks. Just watched it: https://parliamentlive.tv/Event/Index/2b1c71d4-bdf4-44f1-98fe-1563e67060ee …. - Peak ICU in 3-3.5 wks. - So peak current # infected next wk (as takes 2-3 wks to go from infection to being in ICU) - 5-10% London may have infection - Won't go much higher than 5-10% once suppression in place (which is now)?
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+ Not sure how these infections could be widely spread out over a longer time period. The virus has been doubling every 3-4 days, so the vast majority of people ever infected still are today. + IF we stop this now (keep R0<1 via
#Lockdown), we won't see many more. - Show replies
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