If you are going to extrapolate, best evidence after the fact from Wuhan seems to indicate that 'confirmed' cases are somewhere between 20-50% of all cases, so a sense-check would be if you are extrapolating beyond a multiplier of 5x it's unlikely to be true
I don't extrapolate from enormous uncertainty, hence the conversation. We don't know the 'true' rate 14 days ago or today, and the CFR% is easily calculable from public data but is estimated to be ~1%
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Agree that any estimates of course need wide ranges + low confidence. I remain mystified as to how we can get so many deaths from the ~50k total infected today you've suggested. Would a YouGov style general population sample test run help? Anyway - Thanks for your patience.
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Neil Ferguson now estimates 5 to 10% of Londoners may be infected. https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/newslondon/up-to-one-in-10-londoners-may-be-infected-with-coronavirus-expert-warns/ar-BB11HBdk … Here's my updated amateur estimate from yesterday's figures.https://twitter.com/JamieWoodhouse/status/1243282373686542338?s=20 …
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