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GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Verified account
@GidMK

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Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

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    1. Melissa Sweet‏ @MelissaSweetDr 25 Mar 2020

      Pre-print from @theMJA: 'When a system breaks: a queuing theory model for the number of intensive care beds needed during the #COVID19 pandemic'https://www.mja.com.au/journal/2020/212/10/when-system-breaks-queuing-theory-model-number-intensive-care-beds-need-ed …

      1 reply 19 retweets 13 likes
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    2. Melissa Sweet‏ @MelissaSweetDr 25 Mar 2020

      (This is grim reading) "How many ICU beds will the pandemic require? To answer this question we propose a simple model based on an average ICU length of stay of 10 days and we then compare this model against recent real-world data from Lombardy...

      1 reply 2 retweets 5 likes
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    3. Melissa Sweet‏ @MelissaSweetDr 25 Mar 2020

      The authors say the eventual mortality rate of #COVID19 may be much higher than currently estimated because once the system reaches breaking point and there are insufficient ICU Beds, mortality rises dramatically.

      1 reply 7 retweets 7 likes
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    4. Melissa Sweet‏ @MelissaSweetDr 25 Mar 2020

      They conclude that their model "is consistent with international data and suggests the conclusion that the impending demand for ICU beds could overwhelm capacity in even the largest Australian hospitals in the near future. #COVID19

      2 replies 6 retweets 5 likes
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    5. Allen Cheng‏ @peripatetical 25 Mar 2020
      Replying to @MelissaSweetDr

      This model ignores that there are two separate drivers of case numbers - importation and local transmission. It is simple to fit an exponential curve to case numbers, but that doesn't mean it accurately reflects the current epidemiology.

      4 replies 14 retweets 28 likes
      Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 25 Mar 2020
      Replying to @peripatetical @MelissaSweetDr

      Is there a published model you've seen that you think is reasonably reliable Allen?

      9:58 PM - 25 Mar 2020
      • 3 Likes
      • geebeeWA Lucy Carroll Dr Vyom Sharma (ethnic mum)
      1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
        1. Dr Vyom Sharma (ethnic mum)‏ @drvyom 25 Mar 2020
          Replying to @GidMK @peripatetical @MelissaSweetDr

          this is the million dollar question. i am only writing this tweet so I am notified immediately if there is a response!!

          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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