Problem I see with the 50k current infections estimated in the article, is that, given doubling rates, there would have been ~1500 infections 18.5 days ago. The virus takes 18.5 days to kill. We've seen 437 deaths so it kills nearly 1 in 3? It doesn't.
It also depends on your demographics. COVID-19 does indeed kill ~30% of those aged 80+. If you have a disproportionate number of elderly people infected (as in Italy), you see much higher death rates
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Agree. The IFR% jumps hard and fast when ICU capacity runs out. That hasn't happened yet in UK, so seems odd to assume a 30% IFR? Or to assume all of the 2280 people infected two weeks ago were all in the most vulnerable demographic?
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Of course. So are you suggesting that every one of the ~2,280 people infected (not just tested positive) in the UK two weeks ago were in the most vulnerable demographic - so ~30% IFR? That would explain the 463 deaths to date.
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This is getting incredibly tedious. No, I'm not saying that, but I will say that it might be worth wondering why no pandemic experts are making this kind of back-of-the-envelop calculation to guess at the true number of cases

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