Illustration here based on 0.9% IFR (of all infections, not just tested cases) + deaths to yesterday:https://twitter.com/JamieWoodhouse/status/1242482212710146049?s=20 …
Because you can't just extrapolate from the median length of time. It's an average. That's why we use a case-fatality ratio, because this kind of extrapolation can be extremely misleading
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It also depends on your demographics. COVID-19 does indeed kill ~30% of those aged 80+. If you have a disproportionate number of elderly people infected (as in Italy), you see much higher death rates
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I understand this isn't precise, and it may just be my brain... But I still don't understand how an estimated 2,280 total real CV19 infected (from your 5x factor applied to "confirmed cases"), 14 days ago... Can cause 463 deaths to date.
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If I have an 10,000 boxes, with a median of 14 apples inside, I could easily have 500 boxes with only 1 apple and another 500 with 30 apples Now replace boxes with cases of COVID-19, and apples with time until death
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