'Whenever you read a model, the most important thing to look at is not the actual maths behind the graphs - it’s the numbers that have been plugged into the model from the start.'https://medium.com/@gidmk/coronavirus-hasnt-infected-more-than-half-of-the-united-kingdom-50e4fba32552 …
Nope. You can't just extrapolate back like that. 14 days ago the UK had ~800 confirmed cases. Moreoever, see my first point in terms of using current death numbers and a median death time to extrapolate anything - you can't really
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We had 456 on 11/3. And your 456 x 5 implies 2280 real infections then. Yet we've seen 463 deaths 14 days later. Implying CV kills 20% or 1 in 5 of everyone infected? I just don't understand how we can get this many deaths without many more real infections 2 weeks back.
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+ if we had many more infections two weeks back, given exponentials, we have a lot more infections now. Doubling every ~3.5 days. + diverging very quickly from the doubling of "confirmed cases".
End of conversation
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