'Whenever you read a model, the most important thing to look at is not the actual maths behind the graphs - it’s the numbers that have been plugged into the model from the start.'https://medium.com/@gidmk/coronavirus-hasnt-infected-more-than-half-of-the-united-kingdom-50e4fba32552 …
If you are going to extrapolate, best evidence after the fact from Wuhan seems to indicate that 'confirmed' cases are somewhere between 20-50% of all cases, so a sense-check would be if you are extrapolating beyond a multiplier of 5x it's unlikely to be true
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OK - but if we assume confirmed cases (9.5k) are 20% of the total infected number, then we have ~47k total infections now per your article. If you use 14 days infected to death, that implies 14 days ago we had ~1300 total infections (4 doublings). So CV kills 1 in 3 infected!?!
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Surely, whatever the tested "confirmed cases", there must have been many more actual infections ~two weeks ago to drive the deaths we're seeing. + "confirmed cases" aren't driving the transmission - they're in hospital or dead. It's the total number of infected people doubling.
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