Skip to content
By using Twitter’s services you agree to our Cookies Use. We and our partners operate globally and use cookies, including for analytics, personalisation, and ads.
  • Home Home Home, current page.
  • About

Saved searches

  • Remove
  • In this conversation
    Verified accountProtected Tweets @
Suggested users
  • Verified accountProtected Tweets @
  • Verified accountProtected Tweets @
  • Language: English
    • Bahasa Indonesia
    • Bahasa Melayu
    • Català
    • Čeština
    • Dansk
    • Deutsch
    • English UK
    • Español
    • Filipino
    • Français
    • Hrvatski
    • Italiano
    • Magyar
    • Nederlands
    • Norsk
    • Polski
    • Português
    • Română
    • Slovenčina
    • Suomi
    • Svenska
    • Tiếng Việt
    • Türkçe
    • Ελληνικά
    • Български език
    • Русский
    • Српски
    • Українська мова
    • עִבְרִית
    • العربية
    • فارسی
    • मराठी
    • हिन्दी
    • বাংলা
    • ગુજરાતી
    • தமிழ்
    • ಕನ್ನಡ
    • ภาษาไทย
    • 한국어
    • 日本語
    • 简体中文
    • 繁體中文
  • Have an account? Log in
    Have an account?
    · Forgot password?

    New to Twitter?
    Sign up
GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Verified account
@GidMK

Tweets

Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

Tweets

  • © 2021 Twitter
  • About
  • Help Center
  • Terms
  • Privacy policy
  • Cookies
  • Ads info
Dismiss
Previous
Next

Go to a person's profile

Saved searches

  • Remove
  • In this conversation
    Verified accountProtected Tweets @
Suggested users
  • Verified accountProtected Tweets @
  • Verified accountProtected Tweets @

Promote this Tweet

Block

  • Tweet with a location

    You can add location information to your Tweets, such as your city or precise location, from the web and via third-party applications. You always have the option to delete your Tweet location history. Learn more

    Your lists

    Create a new list


    Under 100 characters, optional

    Privacy

    Copy link to Tweet

    Embed this Tweet

    Embed this Video

    Add this Tweet to your website by copying the code below. Learn more

    Add this video to your website by copying the code below. Learn more

    Hmm, there was a problem reaching the server.

    By embedding Twitter content in your website or app, you are agreeing to the Twitter Developer Agreement and Developer Policy.

    Preview

    Why you're seeing this ad

    Log in to Twitter

    · Forgot password?
    Don't have an account? Sign up »

    Sign up for Twitter

    Not on Twitter? Sign up, tune into the things you care about, and get updates as they happen.

    Sign up
    Have an account? Log in »

    Two-way (sending and receiving) short codes:

    Country Code For customers of
    United States 40404 (any)
    Canada 21212 (any)
    United Kingdom 86444 Vodafone, Orange, 3, O2
    Brazil 40404 Nextel, TIM
    Haiti 40404 Digicel, Voila
    Ireland 51210 Vodafone, O2
    India 53000 Bharti Airtel, Videocon, Reliance
    Indonesia 89887 AXIS, 3, Telkomsel, Indosat, XL Axiata
    Italy 4880804 Wind
    3424486444 Vodafone
    » See SMS short codes for other countries

    Confirmation

     

    Welcome home!

    This timeline is where you’ll spend most of your time, getting instant updates about what matters to you.

    Tweets not working for you?

    Hover over the profile pic and click the Following button to unfollow any account.

    Say a lot with a little

    When you see a Tweet you love, tap the heart — it lets the person who wrote it know you shared the love.

    Spread the word

    The fastest way to share someone else’s Tweet with your followers is with a Retweet. Tap the icon to send it instantly.

    Join the conversation

    Add your thoughts about any Tweet with a Reply. Find a topic you’re passionate about, and jump right in.

    Learn the latest

    Get instant insight into what people are talking about now.

    Get more of what you love

    Follow more accounts to get instant updates about topics you care about.

    Find what's happening

    See the latest conversations about any topic instantly.

    Never miss a Moment

    Catch up instantly on the best stories happening as they unfold.

    1. Prof. Devi Sridhar‏Verified account @devisridhar 24 Mar 2020

      'Whenever you read a model, the most important thing to look at is not the actual maths behind the graphs - it’s the numbers that have been plugged into the model from the start.'https://medium.com/@gidmk/coronavirus-hasnt-infected-more-than-half-of-the-united-kingdom-50e4fba32552 …

      5 replies 92 retweets 186 likes
    2. Jamie Woodhouse‏ @JamieWoodhouse 25 Mar 2020
      Replying to @devisridhar

      Jamie Woodhouse Retweeted Jamie Woodhouse

      Illustration here based on 0.9% IFR (of all infections, not just tested cases) + deaths to yesterday:https://twitter.com/JamieWoodhouse/status/1242482212710146049?s=20 …

      Jamie Woodhouse added,

      Jamie Woodhouse @JamieWoodhouse
      ~1 in 39 UK people might now have #COVID19 ~1 in 15 Londoners Sadly, now 422 deaths (87 new) IFR 0.9% Days to death 18.5 So ~47k infected 18.5 days ago 3.5 days to double so ~5 doublings So infections to date: 1.8m Recovered 5% Total infected today: 1.7m #CoronaVirusLockdown https://twitter.com/DHSCgovuk/status/1242479152420225025 …
      Show this thread
      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    3. Jamie Woodhouse‏ @JamieWoodhouse 25 Mar 2020
      Replying to @JamieWoodhouse @devisridhar

      Problem I see with the 50k current infections estimated in the article, is that, given doubling rates, there would have been ~1500 infections 18.5 days ago. The virus takes 18.5 days to kill. We've seen 437 deaths so it kills nearly 1 in 3? It doesn't.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    4. Jamie Woodhouse‏ @JamieWoodhouse 25 Mar 2020
      Replying to @JamieWoodhouse @devisridhar

      Would love to be put right by a pro. But from simple perspective, to see this many deaths to date, either the disease has to be very deadly or many more people are infected than the government has even hinted at. ~18.5 day lag from infection to death? @GidMK

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    5. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 25 Mar 2020
      Replying to @JamieWoodhouse @devisridhar

      Median lag from infection until death is somewhere between 10-18 days, but not everyone is diagnosed on day 1 of infection. Many people are diagnosed when they get seriously ill and present to hospital, and die shortly after

      2 replies 0 retweets 1 like
    6. Jamie Woodhouse‏ @JamieWoodhouse 25 Mar 2020
      Replying to @GidMK @devisridhar

      Thanks Gideon. That's why I've tried to skip "confirmed/diagnosed cases" and instead focus on the relationship between actual infections - detected or not, and deaths. Actual infections critical for public comms re: lockdown complacency. "Confirmed cases" are iceberg tip?

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    7. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 25 Mar 2020
      Replying to @JamieWoodhouse @devisridhar

      Yes and no. Much better to stick to confirmed cases as this is the data you have. Extrapolating to 'actual' infections is extremely challenging and really relies on your assumptions more than it does the data

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 25 Mar 2020
      Replying to @GidMK @JamieWoodhouse @devisridhar

      If you are going to extrapolate, best evidence after the fact from Wuhan seems to indicate that 'confirmed' cases are somewhere between 20-50% of all cases, so a sense-check would be if you are extrapolating beyond a multiplier of 5x it's unlikely to be true

      2:06 PM - 25 Mar 2020
      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Jamie Woodhouse‏ @JamieWoodhouse 25 Mar 2020
          Replying to @GidMK @devisridhar

          OK - but if we assume confirmed cases (9.5k) are 20% of the total infected number, then we have ~47k total infections now per your article. If you use 14 days infected to death, that implies 14 days ago we had ~1300 total infections (4 doublings). So CV kills 1 in 3 infected!?!

          2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. Jamie Woodhouse‏ @JamieWoodhouse 25 Mar 2020
          Replying to @JamieWoodhouse @GidMK @devisridhar

          Surely, whatever the tested "confirmed cases", there must have been many more actual infections ~two weeks ago to drive the deaths we're seeing. + "confirmed cases" aren't driving the transmission - they're in hospital or dead. It's the total number of infected people doubling.

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        4. Show replies

      Loading seems to be taking a while.

      Twitter may be over capacity or experiencing a momentary hiccup. Try again or visit Twitter Status for more information.

        Promoted Tweet

        false

        • © 2021 Twitter
        • About
        • Help Center
        • Terms
        • Privacy policy
        • Cookies
        • Ads info