'Whenever you read a model, the most important thing to look at is not the actual maths behind the graphs - it’s the numbers that have been plugged into the model from the start.'https://medium.com/@gidmk/coronavirus-hasnt-infected-more-than-half-of-the-united-kingdom-50e4fba32552 …
Yes and no. Much better to stick to confirmed cases as this is the data you have. Extrapolating to 'actual' infections is extremely challenging and really relies on your assumptions more than it does the data
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If you are going to extrapolate, best evidence after the fact from Wuhan seems to indicate that 'confirmed' cases are somewhere between 20-50% of all cases, so a sense-check would be if you are extrapolating beyond a multiplier of 5x it's unlikely to be true
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OK - but if we assume confirmed cases (9.5k) are 20% of the total infected number, then we have ~47k total infections now per your article. If you use 14 days infected to death, that implies 14 days ago we had ~1300 total infections (4 doublings). So CV kills 1 in 3 infected!?!
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