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GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Verified account
@GidMK

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Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

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    1. William Waites‏ @ve3hw 25 Mar 2020

      William Waites Retweeted Prof. Devi Sridhar

      Actually, in this case, I think it's inappropriate maths. Nice article from @GidMKhttps://twitter.com/devisridhar/status/1242706727977586688 …

      William Waites added,

      Prof. Devi SridharVerified account @devisridhar
      'Whenever you read a model, the most important thing to look at is not the actual maths behind the graphs - it’s the numbers that have been plugged into the model from the start.' https://medium.com/@gidmk/coronavirus-hasnt-infected-more-than-half-of-the-united-kingdom-50e4fba32552 …
      1 reply 1 retweet 1 like
    2. FreakX‏ @FreakX19 25 Mar 2020
      Replying to @ve3hw @GidMK

      Not at all: the Medium article by @GidMK is crap, and you didn't understand the Oxford model math. Starting from why the Medium article is crap: it compares a US table with case fatalities, with the rho number in the Oxford paper. The US table is *not* an estimate of the IFR...

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    3. FreakX‏ @FreakX19 25 Mar 2020
      Replying to @FreakX19 @ve3hw @GidMK

      ...because the vast majority of cases in the US is not tested, so that table gives *no idea* about the IFR. You can definitely have 1% of the 330M US population susceptible to COVID-19, *and* about 80 deaths as shown in the table.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 25 Mar 2020
      Replying to @FreakX19 @ve3hw

      If you're going to model something, do you arbitrarily assume a best case scenario, or extrapolate from existing data in a reasonable way?

      3:44 AM - 25 Mar 2020
      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. FreakX‏ @FreakX19 27 Mar 2020
          Replying to @GidMK @ve3hw

          You 1) admit that the model is non-identifiable, 2) admit that you don't KNOW about the numbers and ask for serological tests (which is what the Oxford group was doing) and 3) you don't confound (an overestimate ofì) the case fatality ratio with the % of population at risk. An...

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. FreakX‏ @FreakX19 27 Mar 2020
          Replying to @FreakX19 @GidMK @ve3hw

          ...epidemiologist should really know better.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        4. End of conversation

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