Actually, in this case, I think it's inappropriate maths. Nice article from @GidMKhttps://twitter.com/devisridhar/status/1242706727977586688 …
If you're going to model something, do you arbitrarily assume a best case scenario, or extrapolate from existing data in a reasonable way?
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You 1) admit that the model is non-identifiable, 2) admit that you don't KNOW about the numbers and ask for serological tests (which is what the Oxford group was doing) and 3) you don't confound (an overestimate ofì) the case fatality ratio with the % of population at risk. An...
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...epidemiologist should really know better.
End of conversation
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