So I've seen these numbers thrown around a lot
I think this analysis is pretty flawed and very likely to be wrong
Some reasons #COVID19 https://twitter.com/ToryFibs/status/1242561095761637376 …
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TY once again for the careful reasoning! Whenever I see a new report or headline, I look to see if other experts have reviewed and responded - very helpful. (though a 1% hosp rate sounds like such a dream compared to other data rolling in).
Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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@Paul_Toner for the winThanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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Why don’t people do Monte Carlo simulations to add uncertainty to these things? Slap a distribution on all assumptions. Reviewers at all stages should demand it
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No, reviewers should abolutely not demand it! Reviewers should stick to their task and not suggest every expansion to manuscripts that they could think of. I fully agree that it should be done more, also on infectious disease models, but this is more complex than it may seem.
End of conversation
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