you can create a geocentric model that seems to fit observations very well, you just need to keep adding more spheres
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Replying to @ghepeu @venkmurthy
Health Nerd Retweeted Adam Kucharski
I think this team explains it quite wellhttps://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1242539681667067907?s=20 …
Health Nerd added,
Adam KucharskiVerified account @AdamJKucharskiReplying to @HelenBranswellThe modelling isn’t making a specific claim about how many have been infected - it’s more showing that there are several transmission/severity scenarios that would be consistent with observed UK data timeseries, and we need serology to properly distinguish between them1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes -
*tweet
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Based on countries with much better testing data, such as SK and Australia, I think it's extremely unlikely that large proportions of the population have already been infected in any country
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I'm actually not far off from your position. You are probably right, but we should exclude this alternative possibility too.
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Replying to @venkmurthy @ghepeu
I think it's a priority as soon as a serological test is widely available and healthcare facilities can be diverted from treating the epidemic surge to do it
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It's not either/or. There are lots of lab folks and research folks who are idled and could be tasked with taking samples from blood banks, etc to do such a thing.
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Replying to @venkmurthy @ghepeu
Perhaps, but there are numerous other elements of the healthcare system that would need to be aligned to get large-scale community screening of serology going and I suspect those resources are pretty tied up right now
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Absolutely. But getting some targeted samples to test if there is any sort of plausibility is not as hard as you make it. Nothing is easy right now but there are ways. Besides maybe the folks in Wuhan can help. They are slowly relaxing lockdowns now.
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Replying to @venkmurthy @ghepeu
Agree that you could probably have some targeted testing, not sure if that would provide the evidence we'd need tho
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Wuhan is a good idea, wonder if the Chinese govt would consider this
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