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GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
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@GidMK

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Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

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    1. ghepeu‏ @ghepeu 24 Mar 2020
      Replying to @venkmurthy

      you can create a geocentric model that seems to fit observations very well, you just need to keep adding more spheres

      3 replies 0 retweets 1 like
    2. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 24 Mar 2020
      Replying to @ghepeu @venkmurthy

      Health Nerd Retweeted Adam Kucharski

      I think this team explains it quite wellhttps://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1242539681667067907?s=20 …

      Health Nerd added,

      Adam KucharskiVerified account @AdamJKucharski
      Replying to @HelenBranswell
      The modelling isn’t making a specific claim about how many have been infected - it’s more showing that there are several transmission/severity scenarios that would be consistent with observed UK data timeseries, and we need serology to properly distinguish between them
      1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
    3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 24 Mar 2020
      Replying to @GidMK @ghepeu @venkmurthy

      *tweet

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    4. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 24 Mar 2020
      Replying to @GidMK @ghepeu @venkmurthy

      Based on countries with much better testing data, such as SK and Australia, I think it's extremely unlikely that large proportions of the population have already been infected in any country

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    5. Venk Murthy‏ @venkmurthy 24 Mar 2020
      Replying to @GidMK @ghepeu

      I'm actually not far off from your position. You are probably right, but we should exclude this alternative possibility too.

      2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
    6. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 24 Mar 2020
      Replying to @venkmurthy @ghepeu

      I think it's a priority as soon as a serological test is widely available and healthcare facilities can be diverted from treating the epidemic surge to do it

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    7. Venk Murthy‏ @venkmurthy 24 Mar 2020
      Replying to @GidMK @ghepeu

      It's not either/or. There are lots of lab folks and research folks who are idled and could be tasked with taking samples from blood banks, etc to do such a thing.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    8. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 24 Mar 2020
      Replying to @venkmurthy @ghepeu

      Perhaps, but there are numerous other elements of the healthcare system that would need to be aligned to get large-scale community screening of serology going and I suspect those resources are pretty tied up right now

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    9. Venk Murthy‏ @venkmurthy 24 Mar 2020
      Replying to @GidMK @ghepeu

      Absolutely. But getting some targeted samples to test if there is any sort of plausibility is not as hard as you make it. Nothing is easy right now but there are ways. Besides maybe the folks in Wuhan can help. They are slowly relaxing lockdowns now.

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    10. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 24 Mar 2020
      Replying to @venkmurthy @ghepeu

      Agree that you could probably have some targeted testing, not sure if that would provide the evidence we'd need tho

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
      Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 24 Mar 2020
      Replying to @GidMK @venkmurthy @ghepeu

      Wuhan is a good idea, wonder if the Chinese govt would consider this

      3:58 PM - 24 Mar 2020
      • 1 Like
      • Venk Murthy
      0 replies 0 retweets 1 like

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