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GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
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@GidMK

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Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

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    1. Venk Murthy‏ @venkmurthy 24 Mar 2020

      Venk Murthy Retweeted Helen Branswell

      Wow. Fascinating model suggests that if we have overestimated IFR/CFR then a lot of people could already have had COVID and have positive Ab testing. This needs confirmation/refutation ASAP!https://twitter.com/HelenBranswell/status/1242512975107371013 …

      Venk Murthy added,

      Helen BranswellVerified account @HelenBranswell
      Would love to hear thoughts from the smart & time-generous ID modelers on Twitter about this UOxford model that suggests half of the UK may already have been infected with #Covid19. https://www.dropbox.com/s/oxmu2rwsnhi9j9c/Draft-COVID-19-Model%20%2813%29.pdf?dl=0 …
      3 replies 0 retweets 17 likes
    2. ghepeu‏ @ghepeu 24 Mar 2020
      Replying to @venkmurthy

      you can create a geocentric model that seems to fit observations very well, you just need to keep adding more spheres

      3 replies 0 retweets 1 like
    3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 24 Mar 2020
      Replying to @ghepeu @venkmurthy

      Health Nerd Retweeted Adam Kucharski

      I think this team explains it quite wellhttps://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1242539681667067907?s=20 …

      Health Nerd added,

      Adam KucharskiVerified account @AdamJKucharski
      Replying to @HelenBranswell
      The modelling isn’t making a specific claim about how many have been infected - it’s more showing that there are several transmission/severity scenarios that would be consistent with observed UK data timeseries, and we need serology to properly distinguish between them
      1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
      Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 24 Mar 2020
      Replying to @GidMK @ghepeu @venkmurthy

      *tweet

      3:15 PM - 24 Mar 2020
      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 24 Mar 2020
          Replying to @GidMK @ghepeu @venkmurthy

          Based on countries with much better testing data, such as SK and Australia, I think it's extremely unlikely that large proportions of the population have already been infected in any country

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        3. Venk Murthy‏ @venkmurthy 24 Mar 2020
          Replying to @GidMK @ghepeu

          I'm actually not far off from your position. You are probably right, but we should exclude this alternative possibility too.

          2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        4. Show replies

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