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GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Verified account
@GidMK

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Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

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    Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 24 Mar 2020

    Health Nerd Retweeted John Lyons

    Honestly, as an epidemiologist I think this isn't the best idea Simple reason - there is no one #coronavirus curve It's MUCH more complicated than thathttps://twitter.com/TheLyonsDen/status/1242079293892513792 …

    Health Nerd added,

    John LyonsVerified account @TheLyonsDen
    Interesting idea 2nite by Dr Norman Swan @normanswan on @qanda: that each day the Govt should publish the #coronavirus curve. That way all Australians could see the progress we're making - or not - and measure our national success. #publishthecurve could help us #flattenthecurve
    1:30 AM - 24 Mar 2020
    • 11 Retweets
    • 36 Likes
    • Marie McInerney Filanjon🕯 Abby Langer Nutrition #Vaccinated #TeamAZ Elias Hallaj 😤♀️💧🔥🚗 💉😷 The_Skeptical_Scientist⚗️💉🔬🔭⚖️ Kate muffled sounds of gorilla violence James Pitt Lee Constable 🔥
    2 replies 11 retweets 36 likes
      1. New conversation
      2. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 24 Mar 2020

        The really good models come with an hour-long explanation and pages of explanatory notes. They include dozens of scenarios, with prediction intervals and cautious inference

        1 reply 1 retweet 14 likes
        Show this thread
      3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 24 Mar 2020

        Now, I'm a fan of transparency, but I suspect if you published the entirety of the government's models, you'd get people focused on the absolute worst scenario, ignoring most of the complexity Which would be bad

        4 replies 2 retweets 17 likes
        Show this thread
      4. End of conversation
      1. New conversation
      2. gmopundit (David Tribe Ph.D.) Vinceremo‏ @gmopundit 24 Mar 2020
        Replying to @GidMK

        Daily numbers of new cases and epidemic curve with daily number of new infections and deaths by day that symptoms were first detected are more useful -- they will flag successful intervention

        1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
      3. K C Armour & Co.‏ @KCArmourCo 24 Mar 2020
        Replying to @gmopundit @GidMK

        Can you tell how popular someone is by their Facebook friends count? Maybe, but it's a bit more nuanced. If we're going to report a single number, perhaps it should be number of people suspected of breaking social isolation orders? They're the reason we can't have nice things

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
      4. End of conversation

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