Really interesting interview on @abcnews with Prof Tony Blakely responsible for this
https://mspgh.unimelb.edu.au/centres-institutes/centre-for-epidemiology-and-biostatistics/news-and-events/covid-19-modelling-getting-the-balance-right …
Was listening too hard to tweet it
Probably get replayed
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will listen to this v soon. i saw his article in the conversation. controversial stuff! do share thoughts you have on this.
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It’s helpful explainer . In short it’s all a gamble whether we lockdown now or later . Unsurprising when it’s put that way
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My takeaway over the last few days: No one has a crystal ball All data still being collected Models are only as good as the inputs. There is a cost benefit analysis balancing societal and economic effects and an attempt to maximise the outcome.
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I think the key there is the third point. With uncertain data, all models are just guesses using statistics
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Yes. Longer we survive, the data develops and the inputs strengthen
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That being said, I think we have sufficient data to make decisions, without there being any certainty of the future
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We have no choice but to make decisions
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