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GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Verified account
@GidMK

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Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

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    1. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 21 Mar 2020

      So, everyone has been making graphs of the number of cases of #COVID19 and #coronavirus You know, they look a little like this Exponential curve, looks terrifying no matter what! What if we presented this a bit differently?pic.twitter.com/PlC2lJ2PY7

      4 replies 45 retweets 107 likes
      Show this thread
    2. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 21 Mar 2020

      One thing that people aren't really putting out there is the RATE of increase Until we start seeing serious decreases, the number of new cases will always be big However, if the RATE is increasing, it is a good sign

      5 replies 2 retweets 14 likes
      Show this thread
    3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 21 Mar 2020

      For example, going from 1000 to 1100 is roughly a 10% increase Going from 5000 to 5200 is a bigger numerical increase, but not even a 5% increase overall Big difference!

      1 reply 0 retweets 12 likes
      Show this thread
    4. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 21 Mar 2020

      So, what do these rates look like? Well, above is the number of cases in Australia by state. Here is the RATE of increase in the total number over the same time period with a red line at 10%pic.twitter.com/05weUwDL8m

      2 replies 1 retweet 18 likes
      Show this thread
    5. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 21 Mar 2020

      South Korea is an illuminating example The rate massively increased at the start, then dropped to almost 0 over the next few weekspic.twitter.com/UfhoiWKpLv

      1 reply 0 retweets 15 likes
      Show this thread
    6. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 21 Mar 2020

      Italy is also interesting. Big spike at the start, but hasn't dropped below 10% even though it's been going on for a while nowpic.twitter.com/dTH5cm2FgR

      1 reply 0 retweets 12 likes
      Show this thread
    7. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 21 Mar 2020

      Using these graphs, it's possible to see whether a country is currently controlling the epidemic much more easily than using simple graphs of cases SK has almost no growth day by day Italy is still going up exponentially Australia is early, but not doing great

      2 replies 2 retweets 30 likes
      Show this thread
      Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 21 Mar 2020

      Obviously, these are not predictions and can't tell us much if anything about the future However, much more useful than saying "today was the biggest increase in cases since the start of the epidemic!"

      10:15 PM - 21 Mar 2020
      • 3 Retweets
      • 33 Likes
      • Roj Amedi David Harris R. Wood Dr Greg Kelly Pat O'hAodha 🇮🇪 ➡️ 🇦🇺 OnceSmitten Bel on Wheels Jess Scully Damien Boorman
      5 replies 3 retweets 33 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Don Milliken‏ @milliken_don 21 Mar 2020
          Replying to @GidMK

          Not sure how a graph of rates conveys any more info than the following graph, which illustrates both rate and absolute number of cases:pic.twitter.com/jQUKajLuVg

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 21 Mar 2020
          Replying to @milliken_don

          It doesn't, tho. UK looks fine there, while Spain is mostly ok. Rates give you a much better idea of the trajectory

          2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        4. Show replies
        1. New conversation
        2. Ross Grayson, MPH, CIH‏ @EcoLogicalNet 21 Mar 2020
          Replying to @GidMK

          @threadreaderapp unroll

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. Thread Reader App‏ @threadreaderapp 21 Mar 2020
          Replying to @EcoLogicalNet

          Hallo, the unroll you asked for: Thread by @GidMK: So, everyone has been making graphs of the number of cases of #COVID19 and #coronavirus You know… https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1241594323742818305.html …. Share this if you think it's interesting. 🤖

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        4. End of conversation
        1. jacquiboyle  💉 💉‏ @jacanab 22 Mar 2020
          Replying to @GidMK

          Please unroll @threadreaderapp

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        1. New conversation
        2. Steve Hawley‏ @_plinth_ 22 Mar 2020
          Replying to @GidMK

          I've been tracking US cases as well as the base of the exponential growth with a trend line. The base in the US is increasing. If it doesn't level off in the next week, we're in serious trouble.https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1OMBlZBoY8VDUwo_h7YeZ3AySblZDJXxGEGFJz8gc5gI/edit?usp=drivesdk …

          1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
        3. Steve Hawley‏ @_plinth_ 22 Mar 2020
          Replying to @_plinth_ @GidMK

          I've also written up an explanation of how the math works for this. It's accessible to someone with high school math. Please read and share. http://plinth.org/techtalk/?p=590 

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        4. End of conversation
        1. David‏ @DavidJmsPearce 22 Mar 2020
          Replying to @GidMK

          Thanks for that analysis. It looks like the time for action was two weeks ago. This presentation with a log scale is very clear. https://www.visualcapitalist.com/infection-trajectory-flattening-the-covid19-curve/ …

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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