One thing that people aren't really putting out there is the RATE of increase Until we start seeing serious decreases, the number of new cases will always be big However, if the RATE is increasing, it is a good sign
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For example, going from 1000 to 1100 is roughly a 10% increase Going from 5000 to 5200 is a bigger numerical increase, but not even a 5% increase overall Big difference!
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So, what do these rates look like? Well, above is the number of cases in Australia by state. Here is the RATE of increase in the total number over the same time period with a red line at 10%pic.twitter.com/05weUwDL8m
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South Korea is an illuminating example The rate massively increased at the start, then dropped to almost 0 over the next few weekspic.twitter.com/UfhoiWKpLv
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Italy is also interesting. Big spike at the start, but hasn't dropped below 10% even though it's been going on for a while nowpic.twitter.com/dTH5cm2FgR
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Using these graphs, it's possible to see whether a country is currently controlling the epidemic much more easily than using simple graphs of cases SK has almost no growth day by day Italy is still going up exponentially Australia is early, but not doing great
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Obviously, these are not predictions and can't tell us much if anything about the future However, much more useful than saying "today was the biggest increase in cases since the start of the epidemic!"
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Good work
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Next time a student asks when they’ll even use calculus in real life, here’s a great example
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That data is available here https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries …
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