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GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Verified account
@GidMK

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Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

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    1. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 21 Mar 2020

      So, everyone's freaked out by those viral articles written by a tech guy arguing that there are hundreds of thousands/millions of CURRENT coronavirus cases in the US and we're all going to die Let's look at some of the issues that make these articles nonsense 🧵

      1 reply 39 retweets 82 likes
      Show this thread
    2. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 21 Mar 2020

      Firstly, the author relies HEAVILY in the first piece on extrapolations from early case numbers in China Remember, this was only just after China had officially recognized the epidemic! Not likely to be a great source

      1 reply 1 retweet 11 likes
      Show this thread
    3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 21 Mar 2020

      The piece also uses VERY SMALL NUMBERS to extrapolate to VERY BIG NUMBERS For example, extrapolating from 3 deaths to literally anything is total nonsense and epidemiological garbage. Most likely it's a statistical blip

      1 reply 1 retweet 18 likes
      Show this thread
    4. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 21 Mar 2020

      The entire 'true' vs 'confirmed' cases argument is completely contrary to the best evidence If you look at realistic predictions using actual cases/testing data, the 'true' number of cases is likely 2-5x the 'confirmed numberpic.twitter.com/ginPnrRZj4

      2 replies 1 retweet 14 likes
      Show this thread
    5. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 21 Mar 2020

      So when you read 100x-10000x, it's just total gibberish. Extrapolating based on poor evidence and false assumptions

      1 reply 1 retweet 13 likes
      Show this thread
    6. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 21 Mar 2020

      And don't even get me started on 'best-guess epidemiology' Would you like a 'best-guess surgeon' operating on you? No? Then stop listening to this nonsense

      1 reply 2 retweets 24 likes
      Show this thread
    7. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 21 Mar 2020

      The newer piece that is apparently at millions of views already takes then same stance - it is written by a very smart guy operating way outside the bounds of his knowledge or experience

      1 reply 1 retweet 15 likes
      Show this thread
      Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 21 Mar 2020

      I wouldn't feel comfortable making ANY firm predictions about ANY interventions or scenarios, because this stuff is so complex and I'M AN EPIDEMIOLOGIST But he's certain that he knows exactly what's going to happen if we do certain things

      6:46 PM - 21 Mar 2020
      • 1 Retweet
      • 24 Likes
      • 🧸⃤ Dr. Tara C. Smith Elizabeth Arkema Tetraquark Abi Moore GrantD Hans Henrik Krohn well... actually R. J. White
      1 reply 1 retweet 24 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 21 Mar 2020

          The proposed plan ~might~ work, but it would take MUCH longer than he's suggesting Even with a massive intervention, it would take months, not weeks, to control the epidemic

          1 reply 2 retweets 13 likes
          Show this thread
        3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 21 Mar 2020

          The idea that, after as little as 3 weeks, we could go back to normal is just laughable and displays a deep ignorance of how this epidemic is likely to run

          1 reply 5 retweets 29 likes
          Show this thread
        4. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 21 Mar 2020

          After 3 weeks, China was still seeing large rates of transmission even with a lockdown the likes of which the US isn't even contemplating

          1 reply 3 retweets 12 likes
          Show this thread
        5. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 21 Mar 2020

          And now, a month on from THAT - the 7 weeks quoted as the maximum that this would need to run in the article's fanciful scenario - China is worried about undoing the quarantine because of the certainty of future outbreaks

          1 reply 1 retweet 11 likes
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        6. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 21 Mar 2020

          Yes, even with massive, medieval mitigation strategies, China can't lift all of the bans because then people would move around and suddenly you've got more infections springing up everywhere again

          1 reply 1 retweet 7 likes
          Show this thread
        7. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 21 Mar 2020

          Even if we destroy the economy and close everything down, it's not going to be a nice month-long break from reality We need to be realistic and understand this is probably going to be a long haul

          1 reply 1 retweet 18 likes
          Show this thread
        8. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 21 Mar 2020

          Now, thing is, I don't entirely disagree with the systems engineer on every point He's right that we need to do something He's right that the US is not doing nearly enough He's just wrong about most other things

          0 replies 3 retweets 33 likes
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        9. End of conversation

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