Firstly, the author relies HEAVILY in the first piece on extrapolations from early case numbers in China Remember, this was only just after China had officially recognized the epidemic! Not likely to be a great source
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The piece also uses VERY SMALL NUMBERS to extrapolate to VERY BIG NUMBERS For example, extrapolating from 3 deaths to literally anything is total nonsense and epidemiological garbage. Most likely it's a statistical blip
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The entire 'true' vs 'confirmed' cases argument is completely contrary to the best evidence If you look at realistic predictions using actual cases/testing data, the 'true' number of cases is likely 2-5x the 'confirmed numberpic.twitter.com/ginPnrRZj4
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So when you read 100x-10000x, it's just total gibberish. Extrapolating based on poor evidence and false assumptions
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And don't even get me started on 'best-guess epidemiology' Would you like a 'best-guess surgeon' operating on you? No? Then stop listening to this nonsense
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The newer piece that is apparently at millions of views already takes then same stance - it is written by a very smart guy operating way outside the bounds of his knowledge or experience
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I wouldn't feel comfortable making ANY firm predictions about ANY interventions or scenarios, because this stuff is so complex and I'M AN EPIDEMIOLOGIST But he's certain that he knows exactly what's going to happen if we do certain things
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The proposed plan ~might~ work, but it would take MUCH longer than he's suggesting Even with a massive intervention, it would take months, not weeks, to control the epidemic
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The idea that, after as little as 3 weeks, we could go back to normal is just laughable and displays a deep ignorance of how this epidemic is likely to run
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After 3 weeks, China was still seeing large rates of transmission even with a lockdown the likes of which the US isn't even contemplating
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And now, a month on from THAT - the 7 weeks quoted as the maximum that this would need to run in the article's fanciful scenario - China is worried about undoing the quarantine because of the certainty of future outbreaks
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Yes, even with massive, medieval mitigation strategies, China can't lift all of the bans because then people would move around and suddenly you've got more infections springing up everywhere again
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Even if we destroy the economy and close everything down, it's not going to be a nice month-long break from reality We need to be realistic and understand this is probably going to be a long haul
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Now, thing is, I don't entirely disagree with the systems engineer on every point He's right that we need to do something He's right that the US is not doing nearly enough He's just wrong about most other things
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End of conversation
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