I'm literally an epidemiologist. It's not a 'gross estimate', it's simply wrong. Infectious disease modeling is somewhat harder than plotting y=e^x unfortunately
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When you tell a complacent population, who only have a pathetic half hearted attempt at public education from their government to learn from, that what happened in Italy couldn't happen here- you encourage denial & social contact.
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You're not having an academic argument among peers on twitter. Take some responsibility for the message you're sending. You think it won't be so bad. That's nice- meanwhile most of the population have changed nothing about their daily lives.
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Talk about tilting at straw men.
How many experts and lay people who talk about the 'exponential growth' during this phase actually think we're on course for 500 Billion/Trillion etc infections?pic.twitter.com/rqJpaZWQ6OThanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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