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GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Verified account
@GidMK

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Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

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    1. Norman Swan‏Verified account @normanswan 20 Mar 2020

      Norman Swan Retweeted Jason Om

      1700 on Monday, 3400 on Wednesday or Thursday, 7-8000 by next weekend. True number by then 70-80,000 possibly. Primary school maths. Someone should go figure. No magic fairy will bring that down. 14-20 days behind Italy. Believe in maths not magic.https://twitter.com/jason_om/status/1240980716973748224 …

      Norman Swan added,

      Jason OmVerified account @jason_om
      Three days ago there were 430+ #coronavirus infections in Australia. That’s more than doubled to 870+. In 👏🏼 just 👏🏼 three 👏🏼 days. #covid19 #auspol
      438 replies 2,422 retweets 5,071 likes
    2. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 20 Mar 2020
      Replying to @normanswan

      This is incorrect, and should be deleted. If you are interested in infectious disease modelling, there are experts who I'm sure would be happy to inform you 👍

      12 replies 7 retweets 43 likes
    3. Nell Butler‏ @Erythrina5 20 Mar 2020
      Replying to @GidMK @ellyhowse @normanswan

      It's not correct or incorrect. As is very very clear these are gross estimates based on whats already happened 🙂 not exact figures for scientists but estimates for the public. If you're interested in public communication there are experts who would be happy to inform you 👍

      5 replies 1 retweet 31 likes
    4. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 20 Mar 2020
      Replying to @Erythrina5 @ellyhowse @normanswan

      I'm literally an epidemiologist. It's not a 'gross estimate', it's simply wrong. Infectious disease modeling is somewhat harder than plotting y=e^x unfortunately

      10 replies 2 retweets 29 likes
    5. Nell Butler‏ @Erythrina5 20 Mar 2020
      Replying to @GidMK @ellyhowse @normanswan

      He's not doing infectious disease modelling. He's doing public education. The numbers are gross calculations based on other countries. We don't have special immunity, we aren't special exceptions. It's public education aimed at overcoming denial that leads people to Bondi beach.

      2 replies 0 retweets 11 likes
      Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 20 Mar 2020
      Replying to @Erythrina5 @ellyhowse @normanswan

      They aren't based on other countries. If they were, they would be very different. They are high school maths, which it turns out isn't a great basis for complex disease spread

      11:07 PM - 20 Mar 2020
      • 3 Likes
      • Moribundz 🇦🇺🐸🍀 Operational Incident
      5 replies 0 retweets 3 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Nell Butler‏ @Erythrina5 20 Mar 2020
          Replying to @GidMK @ellyhowse @normanswan

          All you're doing is giving ammunition to the denialists who would like to keep partying at Bondi beach. If you have exact calculations, share them. Stop spreading doubt about the advice of the World Health Organisation & experts around the world who are trying to save lives.

          1 reply 0 retweets 12 likes
        3. angie fearon‏ @angiefearon 22 Mar 2020
          Replying to @Erythrina5 @GidMK and

          Nice work Nell.

          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
        4. End of conversation
        1. New conversation
        2. Nell Butler‏ @Erythrina5 20 Mar 2020
          Replying to @GidMK @ellyhowse @normanswan

          Tell us what your predictions for this disease spread are. Do you think it's a hysterical panic & the numbers are likely much lower? Be clear about your opinion. And please put it here on the internet for the public record.

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 20 Mar 2020
          Replying to @Erythrina5 @ellyhowse @normanswan

          Here's what the experts say: it's too changeable to give consistent predictions. So much depends on things that happen every day. I agree with themhttps://www.smh.com.au/national/it-s-not-magical-pandemic-modeller-demystifies-australia-s-coronavirus-strategy-20200318-p54bfb.html …

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        4. Show replies
        1. New conversation
        2. Miles McBain‏ @MilesMcBain 20 Mar 2020
          Replying to @GidMK @Erythrina5 and

          He appears to be using a doubling rate of ~ 3 days which is very much in line with what we have seen from Europe and US at this stage of their outbreak.

          1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
        3. 100% That Enby‏ @EmRstats 21 Mar 2020
          Replying to @MilesMcBain @GidMK and

          It is what NZ seems to be experiencing right now too

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        4. Show replies
        1. Harry Connic‏ @harryconnic1 21 Mar 2020
          Replying to @GidMK @Erythrina5 and

          Italy is near 10% death rate It’s not looking great

          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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        1. Julian DB‏ @delbified 21 Mar 2020
          Replying to @GidMK @Erythrina5 and

          Respect your work, but quibbling over the maths or modeling isn't the point here. We're dealing with large proportion of society who are entirely complacent about the risks. They aren't accepting of what likely? lies ahead in the next few weeks. If you doubt that, I'm all ears.

          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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