1700 on Monday, 3400 on Wednesday or Thursday, 7-8000 by next weekend. True number by then 70-80,000 possibly. Primary school maths. Someone should go figure. No magic fairy will bring that down. 14-20 days behind Italy. Believe in maths not magic.https://twitter.com/jason_om/status/1240980716973748224 …
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All you're doing is giving ammunition to the denialists who would like to keep partying at Bondi beach. If you have exact calculations, share them. Stop spreading doubt about the advice of the World Health Organisation & experts around the world who are trying to save lives.
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Nice work Nell.
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Tell us what your predictions for this disease spread are. Do you think it's a hysterical panic & the numbers are likely much lower? Be clear about your opinion. And please put it here on the internet for the public record.
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Here's what the experts say: it's too changeable to give consistent predictions. So much depends on things that happen every day. I agree with themhttps://www.smh.com.au/national/it-s-not-magical-pandemic-modeller-demystifies-australia-s-coronavirus-strategy-20200318-p54bfb.html …
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He appears to be using a doubling rate of ~ 3 days which is very much in line with what we have seen from Europe and US at this stage of their outbreak.
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It is what NZ seems to be experiencing right now too
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Italy is near 10% death rate It’s not looking great
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Respect your work, but quibbling over the maths or modeling isn't the point here. We're dealing with large proportion of society who are entirely complacent about the risks. They aren't accepting of what likely? lies ahead in the next few weeks. If you doubt that, I'm all ears.
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just

not exact figures for scientists but estimates for the public. If you're interested in public communication there are experts who would be happy to inform you