A few days ago: your article alluding to 'doom laden' analysis @tomaspueyo - https://www.businesspost.ie/analysts/why-covid-19-predictions-wont-always-add-up-231b44f9?utm_campaign=article&utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=web …
Today: a new piece from him - https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-the-hammer-and-the-dance-be9337092b56 …
What is your opinion now?
Curiously, you agreed in your piece with the suggestions - rapid lockdown now, so why dismiss?
-
-
Because the predictions were totally incorrect. That we both agree that mitigation is necessary does not mitigate the many errors in the piece regarding prediction
1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes -
Justin Clarke Retweeted Yaneer Bar-Yam
Leading pandemic response voices like
@yaneerbaryam disagree, and are urging people to read the follow-up:https://twitter.com/yaneerbaryam/status/1240754323874885646 …Justin Clarke added,
1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes -
The assumptions were extremely suspect and almost certainly wrong. The actual modelling I've seen from pandemic modelling experts looks vastly different, but honestly you don't need to see that to note that the piece was massively flawed
1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes -
I appreciate you think that, but if you go to the effort of writing an article dismissing it, as a reader I would have appreciated specific criticisms so we are more informed. Instead it seems like lazy dismissal. I would be surprised if
@yaneerbaryam missed major flaws in it.1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes -
It was not the only absurd prediction, so I wrote addressing them all. I could spend 7,000 words addressing every piece of nonsense out there, but that's the problem with nonsense. Always more to debunk than there is time to do it
2 replies 0 retweets 1 like -
I have seen a lot of people calling you lazy in the last few days for not spending your time giving detailed breakdowns of why all the nonsense is nonsense.
2 replies 0 retweets 1 like -
Replying to @riding_red @GidMK and
I didn't call the author lazy. I said the article is clearly lazy dismissal, which it is. The blog post by
@tomaspueyo is one of the most viral pieces online at the moment, and some pandemic experts think it's important. Appreciate opposing voices, if they bring substance.1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes -
Replying to @justsee @riding_red and
I mean, the most obvious reason is that extrapolating from a small number of deaths is statistically illiterate and unlikely to provide sufficient information for a model, and yet that's the basis for the piece
1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes -
Could also point out that presenting a single scenario as truth when it is based on a number of extremely unlikely assumptions is epidemiological nonsense The real experts don't post their vague predictions online because then they go viral despite being wrong
2 replies 0 retweets 1 like
But really, who has time to explain the major issues with predictions online to people who insult your writing without even engaging with it at all 
-
-
Replying to @GidMK @riding_red and
If I write something publicly I'm prepared to engage with valid criticisms. I didn't insult your writing - I observed some factual points about it, and you've now provided some more substance. Not sure why you think I'm not engaging with it - that's exactly what this is?
0 replies 0 retweets 0 likesThanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
-
Loading seems to be taking a while.
Twitter may be over capacity or experiencing a momentary hiccup. Try again or visit Twitter Status for more information.