Without serious action, Australia will run out of intensive care beds between 7 and 10 April by Megan Higgiehttps://link.medium.com/RRVLBk2RW4
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Replying to @stephenjduckett
This article is wrong on a number of fronts, making the prediction extremely suspect. For one thing, median LoS in ICU for COVID-19 is likely 7-10 days not 30
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Replying to @GidMK @stephenjduckett
The article also uses a '5% of Covid cases will need ICUs' figure from a mid-February China study that makes no use of ICUs, and with no adjustment for different age distribution. It assumes no effects from social distancing and just assumes exponential increase.
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According to her website, Megan Higgie is a lecturer at JCU specialising in evolution. She has no apparent expertise in epidemiology or health. None. There's no information on who Andrew Kahn is.pic.twitter.com/CeN6nbO8wZ
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Links: - the mid-February study the authors rely on for their 5% 'ICU' figure: http://weekly.chinacdc.cn/en/article/id/e53946e2-c6c4-41e9-9a9b-fea8db1a8f51 …. - Megan Higgie's webpage: https://research.jcu.edu.au/portfolio/megan.higgie/ …
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I don’t know either way - and have absolutely no qualifications to say. Nor do this study’s authors. What I do say is that their model draws a key figure from a source that does not support that figure, and is based on an unexplained assumption of continuing exponential growth.
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Not exponential growth - "continuing" exponential growth This is key. In the initial phase of an epidemic, we'll see an exponential curve. It is almost certain that this will flatten out as the population takes measures to socially distance
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