What actually happened is that some scientists used early data from China to MODEL how many cases of COVID-19 MIGHT have been 'undetected' https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2020/03/13/science.abb3221 …pic.twitter.com/yfIyCCsCuU
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What actually happened is that some scientists used early data from China to MODEL how many cases of COVID-19 MIGHT have been 'undetected' https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2020/03/13/science.abb3221 …pic.twitter.com/yfIyCCsCuU
They ESTIMATED that, prior to 23/01/2020, in China (which if you'll remember was still cagey about the epidemic and not testing all that much), ~86% of cases may not have been identified
But even in the paper, they acknowledge that THIS MIGHT NOT BE TRUE FOR OTHER COUNTRIES/SITUATIONSpic.twitter.com/HrguTXeadI
For example, in Australia we have tested nearly 100,000 people according to the PM That's 4,000 tests per million people! It is WILDLY unlikely that these results apply to Aus right nowpic.twitter.com/QPGHBW6C0I
But even if your local area is not testing as much as Aus, it's worth noting that these are not ABSOLUTE TRUTHS they are PREDICTIONS MODELED FROM INCOMPLETE DATA There is a high degree of uncertainty in any such modelpic.twitter.com/hPiyqrcxrB
The more precise a statistic, the bigger salt grain to take it with. One article claimed the actual number of cases was likely 10-100x confirmed cases. At least that author didn't claim precise knowledge. (A week ago, before testing escalated.)
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