This is not a very good analysis. There are a great number of inaccuracies or very problematic assumptions that make the final figures extremely unlikely
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Replying to @GidMK @Asher_Wolf
For example, the average ICU length of stay is not "4 weeks" as assumed in the analysis - while this number is not firm, it appears that median ICU LoS is somewhere between 7-10 days from most published research
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Replying to @Asher_Wolf
No worries! The problem is that it's easy to make models that seem at first glance to be reasonable, but with one or two problematic assumptions that blow everything out of proportion
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Replying to @GidMK @Asher_Wolf
Also, this piece with quotes from an expert pandemic modeler - she doesn't give predictions because of the uncertainty!https://www.smh.com.au/national/it-s-not-magical-pandemic-modeller-demystifies-australia-s-coronavirus-strategy-20200318-p54bfb.html …
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Replying to @touchmywoowoo @Asher_Wolf
This is not true. Influenza case fatality rates are hard to definitively estimate - it varies by season - but are usually between 0.05-0.1%
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That report does not include case-fatality rate. If you look at the NNDSS, there were 313,000 cases of influenza in 2019, and roughly 1,200 deaths, a death rate of 0.4% http://www9.health.gov.au/cda/source/cda-index.cfm …
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