This is not a very good analysis. There are a great number of inaccuracies or very problematic assumptions that make the final figures extremely unlikely
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Isn't this a bit irresponsible, given the graphs, models and numbers that people are mostly talking about right now are the numbers published by MRC GIDA - ie, people who are among the worlds foremost experts on the subject - a few days ago? ie https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf …
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I've seen the Imperial numbers posted FAR less than random people who've taken upon themselves to predict apocalypse using Excel
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