This is not a very good analysis. There are a great number of inaccuracies or very problematic assumptions that make the final figures extremely unlikely
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Also, modelling that uses continuous exponential curves as the basis are unlikely to be correct - this assumes no agency whatsoever for individuals, which is almost certainly wrong Thus, my take:https://medium.com/@gidmk/stop-making-coronavirus-predictions-9a541eff2fce …
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Isn't this a bit irresponsible, given the graphs, models and numbers that people are mostly talking about right now are the numbers published by MRC GIDA - ie, people who are among the worlds foremost experts on the subject - a few days ago? ie https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf …
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I’m going to delete my tweet of it - thank you
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No worries! The problem is that it's easy to make models that seem at first glance to be reasonable, but with one or two problematic assumptions that blow everything out of proportion
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For survivors or everyone admitted?
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