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GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Verified account
@GidMK

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Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

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    1. Sinan Aral‏Verified account @sinanaral 17 Mar 2020
      Replying to @GidMK

      I pretty much disagree with everything in this tweet.

      3 replies 0 retweets 6 likes
    2. Akhmed Umyarov‏ @realAkhmed 17 Mar 2020
      Replying to @sinanaral @GidMK

      Sinan, I see @GidMK point. Doctors are soldiers on the battlefield right now. Testing is their limited ammo. Their own health depends on testing the suspicious case in front of them. So do the lives of other patients. Spraying the limited ammo in all directions randomly is ...

      2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
    3. Sinan Aral‏Verified account @sinanaral 17 Mar 2020
      Replying to @realAkhmed @GidMK

      Read the whole thread. No one is actually advocating *random* sampling... Just something smarter like SRS or active learning. I don't want to rehash the whole thread. Doctors are turning away people left and right on a hunch. Told to not come in. Why not be smart and systematic?

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    4. Akhmed Umyarov‏ @realAkhmed 17 Mar 2020
      Replying to @sinanaral @GidMK

      * This is a direct quote from your first tweet: "An argument for *random* COVID-19 testing." * This is a direct quote from your last tweet: "No one is actually advocating *random* sampling."

      2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
    5. Dean Eckles‏ @deaneckles 17 Mar 2020
      Replying to @realAkhmed @sinanaral @GidMK

      "Random" sometimes denotes uniform random, other times it means non-uniform random, perhaps satisfying positivity for some population — hopefully yielding what is sometimes called a probability sample. One has to rely on context a bit.

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    6. Akhmed Umyarov‏ @realAkhmed 17 Mar 2020
      Replying to @deaneckles @sinanaral @GidMK

      Once they have testing resources they can do that. Until then, let the soldiers decide - it is their health and the health of other patients that is on the line.

      2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
    7. Dean Eckles‏ @deaneckles 17 Mar 2020
      Replying to @realAkhmed @sinanaral @GidMK

      That seems like a different argument. And unclear that the current testing regime is one that has indeed been chosen by medical experts, epidemiologist, or front-line health care works.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    8. Akhmed Umyarov‏ @realAkhmed 17 Mar 2020
      Replying to @deaneckles @sinanaral @GidMK

      No, that was my argument to begin with (see above). My understanding is that @GidMK has basically the same argument but I can't vouch for that.

      3 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
    9. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 17 Mar 2020
      Replying to @realAkhmed @deaneckles @sinanaral

      Yes, similar. I think it's unlikely that we will be able to implement a testing regime that prioritizes perfect data, so rather it is more important to use the data we do gather with our imperfect system wisely

      2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
    10. Sinan Aral‏Verified account @sinanaral 17 Mar 2020
      Replying to @GidMK @realAkhmed @deaneckles

      Sinan Aral Retweeted Andrew Weeks  😷

      Note: this suggests in an Italian town where everyone was tested repeatedly, 50% of positive cases where healthy & asymptomatic. If true & we continue doing what we're doing we will cost *millions* of lives and the pandemic will last a year not 6 months.https://twitter.com/meloncholy/status/1240080200152616967?s=19 …

      Sinan Aral added,

      Andrew Weeks  😷 @meloncholy
      Replying to @sinanaral
      Vò in Italy is an interesting, if small scale, example where everyone in the town was tested repeatedly. Roughly half of infected had no symptoms. Aggressive testing helps Italian town cut new coronavirus cases to zero https://www.ft.com/content/0dba7ea8-6713-11ea-800d-da70cff6e4d3?shareType=nongift …
      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 17 Mar 2020
      Replying to @sinanaral @realAkhmed @deaneckles

      There's strong evidence from Italy and Wuhan that 50-80% of cases are mild/asymptomatic. This does indeed have implications for the health service, but random testing is not one of them

      9:15 PM - 17 Mar 2020
      • 1 Like
      • Akhmed Umyarov
      2 replies 0 retweets 1 like
        1. New conversation
        2. Dean Eckles‏ @deaneckles 17 Mar 2020
          Replying to @GidMK @sinanaral @realAkhmed

          Isn't India using an explicit sampling strategy from cases with a class of symptoms? (One relevant population) Not in a position to say whether this the best approach of course

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        3. Dean Eckles‏ @deaneckles 17 Mar 2020
          Replying to @deaneckles @GidMK and

          Random sampling in India, in part due to scarcity of tests, and in Austria https://indianexpress.com/article/explained/india-coronavirus-tests-icmr-6317845/ … Both are conditional on symptoms, but still differ from eg allocating deterministically, often somewhat opaquely.

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        4. Show replies
        1. New conversation
        2. Sinan Aral‏Verified account @sinanaral 18 Mar 2020
          Replying to @GidMK @realAkhmed @deaneckles

          See above👆you seem to not even be able to consider the possibility that this is a good idea despite the fact that some forms of it are being implemented globally. I'm simply saying can't we consider some systematic surveillance testing. Your position seems dogmatic to me.

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 18 Mar 2020
          Replying to @sinanaral @realAkhmed @deaneckles

          Systematic does not mean random, and is in no way what Ioannidis was calling for in the article you posted

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        4. Show replies

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