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GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Verified account
@GidMK

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Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

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    1. Sinan Aral‏Verified account @sinanaral 17 Mar 2020
      Replying to @GidMK

      Have you seen the confidence intervals?? Our estimates of mobility and mortality, transmission and prevalence are so wide we know very little. I don't think we need a perfect sample, but a little more precision is warranted.

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    2. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 17 Mar 2020
      Replying to @sinanaral

      CIs are mostly a function of sample size, not sampling accuracy. I do agree we don't know a lot, but I would strongly disagree that we know very little. We have a very good idea of the R0, confident estimates of hospitalization rate, and pretty decent predictions of morbidity

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    3. Sinan Aral‏Verified account @sinanaral 17 Mar 2020
      Replying to @GidMK

      I pretty much disagree with everything in this tweet.

      3 replies 0 retweets 6 likes
    4. Akhmed Umyarov‏ @realAkhmed 17 Mar 2020
      Replying to @sinanaral @GidMK

      Sinan, I see @GidMK point. Doctors are soldiers on the battlefield right now. Testing is their limited ammo. Their own health depends on testing the suspicious case in front of them. So do the lives of other patients. Spraying the limited ammo in all directions randomly is ...

      2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
    5. Sinan Aral‏Verified account @sinanaral 17 Mar 2020
      Replying to @realAkhmed @GidMK

      Read the whole thread. No one is actually advocating *random* sampling... Just something smarter like SRS or active learning. I don't want to rehash the whole thread. Doctors are turning away people left and right on a hunch. Told to not come in. Why not be smart and systematic?

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    6. Akhmed Umyarov‏ @realAkhmed 17 Mar 2020
      Replying to @sinanaral @GidMK

      * This is a direct quote from your first tweet: "An argument for *random* COVID-19 testing." * This is a direct quote from your last tweet: "No one is actually advocating *random* sampling."

      2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
    7. Dean Eckles‏ @deaneckles 17 Mar 2020
      Replying to @realAkhmed @sinanaral @GidMK

      "Random" sometimes denotes uniform random, other times it means non-uniform random, perhaps satisfying positivity for some population — hopefully yielding what is sometimes called a probability sample. One has to rely on context a bit.

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    8. Akhmed Umyarov‏ @realAkhmed 17 Mar 2020
      Replying to @deaneckles @sinanaral @GidMK

      Once they have testing resources they can do that. Until then, let the soldiers decide - it is their health and the health of other patients that is on the line.

      2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
    9. Dean Eckles‏ @deaneckles 17 Mar 2020
      Replying to @realAkhmed @sinanaral @GidMK

      That seems like a different argument. And unclear that the current testing regime is one that has indeed been chosen by medical experts, epidemiologist, or front-line health care works.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    10. Akhmed Umyarov‏ @realAkhmed 17 Mar 2020
      Replying to @deaneckles @sinanaral @GidMK

      No, that was my argument to begin with (see above). My understanding is that @GidMK has basically the same argument but I can't vouch for that.

      3 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
      Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 17 Mar 2020
      Replying to @realAkhmed @deaneckles @sinanaral

      Yes, similar. I think it's unlikely that we will be able to implement a testing regime that prioritizes perfect data, so rather it is more important to use the data we do gather with our imperfect system wisely

      6:33 PM - 17 Mar 2020
      2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        1. Sinan Aral‏Verified account @sinanaral 17 Mar 2020
          Replying to @GidMK @realAkhmed @deaneckles

          No one is arguing either for perfection or for throwing away data... We're being overrun by a legion of straw men!

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        2. Sinan Aral‏Verified account @sinanaral 17 Mar 2020
          Replying to @GidMK @realAkhmed @deaneckles

          Sinan Aral Retweeted Andrew Weeks  😷

          Note: this suggests in an Italian town where everyone was tested repeatedly, 50% of positive cases where healthy & asymptomatic. If true & we continue doing what we're doing we will cost *millions* of lives and the pandemic will last a year not 6 months.https://twitter.com/meloncholy/status/1240080200152616967?s=19 …

          Sinan Aral added,

          Andrew Weeks  😷 @meloncholy
          Replying to @sinanaral
          Vò in Italy is an interesting, if small scale, example where everyone in the town was tested repeatedly. Roughly half of infected had no symptoms. Aggressive testing helps Italian town cut new coronavirus cases to zero https://www.ft.com/content/0dba7ea8-6713-11ea-800d-da70cff6e4d3?shareType=nongift …
          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 17 Mar 2020
          Replying to @sinanaral @realAkhmed @deaneckles

          There's strong evidence from Italy and Wuhan that 50-80% of cases are mild/asymptomatic. This does indeed have implications for the health service, but random testing is not one of them

          2 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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