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GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Verified account
@GidMK

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Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

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    1. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 17 Mar 2020
      Replying to @sinanaral

      I don't think that's true - it teaches us a lot. What it doesn't give us is perfect information, but I think the reality is that we simply aren't going to have perfect information for some time yet

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    2. Sinan Aral‏Verified account @sinanaral 17 Mar 2020
      Replying to @GidMK

      What we care most about is prevalence and risk (morbidity/mortality). Testing people as they drive up to a tent indeed teaches us little about prevalence or risk, not to mention asymptomatic shedding and transmission. The errors are so large, we can't plan.

      1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
    3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 17 Mar 2020
      Replying to @sinanaral

      I disagree wholeheartedly. With an infinite supply of testing and a perfectly happy population, perhaps, but in the real world we care most about identifying as many cases as possible in as short a space of time with limited testing facilities

      2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
    4. Sinan Aral‏Verified account @sinanaral 17 Mar 2020
      Replying to @GidMK

      Wow, yes, we completely disagree. Learning about the prevalence of cases in regional & demographic subpopulations will help us find more true positives. Assuming testing ramps up over time, the tests later are better deployed with knowledge of where to deploy them.

      2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
    5. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 17 Mar 2020
      Replying to @sinanaral

      Ofc testing will ramp up over time, but so will cases. If there's some hypothetical future where we are on top of the epidemic and have extra tests to run, sure. For now, it's not a good suggestion imo

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    6. Sinan Aral‏Verified account @sinanaral 17 Mar 2020
      Replying to @GidMK

      So then you're in favor of testing anyone who drives up to a testing facility?

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    7. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 17 Mar 2020
      Replying to @sinanaral

      No of course not. Targeted testing is extremely important, using pre-test probability as a guide. If there's no chance someone has COVID-19, and we have limited resources, test those who are most likely to be sick

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    8. Sinan Aral‏Verified account @sinanaral 17 Mar 2020
      Replying to @GidMK

      Then you are in favor of probability sampling and we just disagree on the minutiae of the sampling frame and procedure.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    9. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 17 Mar 2020
      Replying to @sinanaral

      I think it's impossible to avoid that the first priority right now is convenience rather than sampling perfection

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    10. Sinan Aral‏Verified account @sinanaral 17 Mar 2020
      Replying to @GidMK

      That's a "straw man" - no one is arguing for sampling perfection and no one is denying the need to oversample likely positives... But right now it's hard to argue there is any systematic approach to the way we are testing. Moving a little more toward the systematic would help.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 17 Mar 2020
      Replying to @sinanaral

      I think there's a disconnect here between my experience in Australia and yours in the US. We've got basic systems for testing, and are doing a very large number of tests as well

      5:49 PM - 17 Mar 2020
      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Sinan Aral‏Verified account @sinanaral 17 Mar 2020
          Replying to @GidMK

          Well, I *completely* agree with that!! We are completely incompetent (and I'm not being facetious).

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        3. Sinan Aral‏Verified account @sinanaral 17 Mar 2020
          Replying to @sinanaral @GidMK

          Anyway, I appreciate you engaging and thanks for your perspective!

          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
        4. End of conversation

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