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GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Verified account
@GidMK

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Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

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    1. Sinan Aral‏Verified account @sinanaral 17 Mar 2020

      An argument for *random* COVID-19 testing. Tesing is biased toward the sick & ill. So we don't know how much COVID-19 there is or how dangerous it is. This uncertainty => over and/or under reaction. We can't manage what we don't measure respresentatively. https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/17/a-fiasco-in-the-making-as-the-coronavirus-pandemic-takes-hold-we-are-making-decisions-without-reliable-data/ …

      14 replies 130 retweets 321 likes
      Show this thread
    2. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 17 Mar 2020
      Replying to @sinanaral

      I dislike this argument very much. Decision-making is important, but there is no feasible, equitable, or realistic way to randomly test people for #COVID19 during an outbreak

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 17 Mar 2020
      Replying to @GidMK @sinanaral

      If nothing else, I can imagine the panic if you suddenly approached a truly random sample and asked them all to get tested, while denying people with symptoms that avenue

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    4. Sinan Aral‏Verified account @sinanaral 17 Mar 2020
      Replying to @GidMK

      Totally random sampling makes no sense as we want probability sampling to favor finding positive cases. But the current approach doesn't give us statistical knowledge. I'm not an epidemiologist (don't know the field also see ethics thread) but current test frame teaches us little

      1 reply 0 retweets 4 likes
    5. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 17 Mar 2020
      Replying to @sinanaral

      I don't think that's true - it teaches us a lot. What it doesn't give us is perfect information, but I think the reality is that we simply aren't going to have perfect information for some time yet

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    6. Sinan Aral‏Verified account @sinanaral 17 Mar 2020
      Replying to @GidMK

      What we care most about is prevalence and risk (morbidity/mortality). Testing people as they drive up to a tent indeed teaches us little about prevalence or risk, not to mention asymptomatic shedding and transmission. The errors are so large, we can't plan.

      1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
    7. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 17 Mar 2020
      Replying to @sinanaral

      I disagree wholeheartedly. With an infinite supply of testing and a perfectly happy population, perhaps, but in the real world we care most about identifying as many cases as possible in as short a space of time with limited testing facilities

      2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
    8. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 17 Mar 2020
      Replying to @GidMK @sinanaral

      Imagine if your sick relative was denied testing because the government decided they wanted a good statistical sample. Can you imagine? It'd be chaos

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    9. Sinan Aral‏Verified account @sinanaral 17 Mar 2020
      Replying to @GidMK

      See the thread on ethics... There are lots of utilitarian vs deontological dilemmas here... Testing is but one of them. In itlay they are denying 80 year olds ICU's in favor of 40 year olds.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 17 Mar 2020
      Replying to @sinanaral

      I did a degree in ethics, I'm pretty well versed. I'm not saying there may not be some vague ethical arguments here, I'm saying if you tried to do it there'd be rioting in the streets

      5:25 PM - 17 Mar 2020
      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Sinan Aral‏Verified account @sinanaral 17 Mar 2020
          Replying to @GidMK

          I'm not trying to make you defensive about your ethics training (I'm not an ethicist), I'm just pointing out that you are making ethical determinations that are not clear but advocating them as seemingly obvious choices.

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 17 Mar 2020
          Replying to @sinanaral

          Look, my point is not to attack you either, it's that this isn't an ethical simulation. I'm not saying we can't reason ourselves into a position where random testing is the most ethically defensible stance, I'm saying even if you could it's an obvious impossibility practically

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
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