Skip to content
By using Twitter’s services you agree to our Cookies Use. We and our partners operate globally and use cookies, including for analytics, personalisation, and ads.
  • Home Home Home, current page.
  • About

Saved searches

  • Remove
  • In this conversation
    Verified accountProtected Tweets @
Suggested users
  • Verified accountProtected Tweets @
  • Verified accountProtected Tweets @
  • Language: English
    • Bahasa Indonesia
    • Bahasa Melayu
    • Català
    • Čeština
    • Dansk
    • Deutsch
    • English UK
    • Español
    • Filipino
    • Français
    • Hrvatski
    • Italiano
    • Magyar
    • Nederlands
    • Norsk
    • Polski
    • Português
    • Română
    • Slovenčina
    • Suomi
    • Svenska
    • Tiếng Việt
    • Türkçe
    • Ελληνικά
    • Български език
    • Русский
    • Српски
    • Українська мова
    • עִבְרִית
    • العربية
    • فارسی
    • मराठी
    • हिन्दी
    • বাংলা
    • ગુજરાતી
    • தமிழ்
    • ಕನ್ನಡ
    • ภาษาไทย
    • 한국어
    • 日本語
    • 简体中文
    • 繁體中文
  • Have an account? Log in
    Have an account?
    · Forgot password?

    New to Twitter?
    Sign up
GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Verified account
@GidMK

Tweets

Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

Tweets

  • © 2021 Twitter
  • About
  • Help Center
  • Terms
  • Privacy policy
  • Cookies
  • Ads info
Dismiss
Previous
Next

Go to a person's profile

Saved searches

  • Remove
  • In this conversation
    Verified accountProtected Tweets @
Suggested users
  • Verified accountProtected Tweets @
  • Verified accountProtected Tweets @

Promote this Tweet

Block

  • Tweet with a location

    You can add location information to your Tweets, such as your city or precise location, from the web and via third-party applications. You always have the option to delete your Tweet location history. Learn more

    Your lists

    Create a new list


    Under 100 characters, optional

    Privacy

    Copy link to Tweet

    Embed this Tweet

    Embed this Video

    Add this Tweet to your website by copying the code below. Learn more

    Add this video to your website by copying the code below. Learn more

    Hmm, there was a problem reaching the server.

    By embedding Twitter content in your website or app, you are agreeing to the Twitter Developer Agreement and Developer Policy.

    Preview

    Why you're seeing this ad

    Log in to Twitter

    · Forgot password?
    Don't have an account? Sign up »

    Sign up for Twitter

    Not on Twitter? Sign up, tune into the things you care about, and get updates as they happen.

    Sign up
    Have an account? Log in »

    Two-way (sending and receiving) short codes:

    Country Code For customers of
    United States 40404 (any)
    Canada 21212 (any)
    United Kingdom 86444 Vodafone, Orange, 3, O2
    Brazil 40404 Nextel, TIM
    Haiti 40404 Digicel, Voila
    Ireland 51210 Vodafone, O2
    India 53000 Bharti Airtel, Videocon, Reliance
    Indonesia 89887 AXIS, 3, Telkomsel, Indosat, XL Axiata
    Italy 4880804 Wind
    3424486444 Vodafone
    » See SMS short codes for other countries

    Confirmation

     

    Welcome home!

    This timeline is where you’ll spend most of your time, getting instant updates about what matters to you.

    Tweets not working for you?

    Hover over the profile pic and click the Following button to unfollow any account.

    Say a lot with a little

    When you see a Tweet you love, tap the heart — it lets the person who wrote it know you shared the love.

    Spread the word

    The fastest way to share someone else’s Tweet with your followers is with a Retweet. Tap the icon to send it instantly.

    Join the conversation

    Add your thoughts about any Tweet with a Reply. Find a topic you’re passionate about, and jump right in.

    Learn the latest

    Get instant insight into what people are talking about now.

    Get more of what you love

    Follow more accounts to get instant updates about topics you care about.

    Find what's happening

    See the latest conversations about any topic instantly.

    Never miss a Moment

    Catch up instantly on the best stories happening as they unfold.

    1. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 17 Mar 2020

      Now, not all of these beds are available every day, and not all of them are suitable for #COVID19 patients But let's assume they are for the sake of argument

      1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
      Show this thread
    2. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 17 Mar 2020

      A "bed-day" is a term describing the use of a hospital inpatient bed for 24 hours If we have 6,000 beds, we have 6,000 bed-days each day, or 42,000 a week

      1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
      Show this thread
    3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 17 Mar 2020

      The median #COVID19 length of stay in hospital is hard to accurately assess right now, but appears to be somewhere around 7 days so we'll use that

      1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
      Show this thread
    4. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 17 Mar 2020

      Now here is the BIG CAVEAT ALL OF THIS IS HYPOTHETICAL. WE DO NOT KNOW ENOUGH FOR ANYTHING TO BE CERTAIN. DO NOT TAKE THIS AS A PREDICTION OF ANY KIND

      1 reply 0 retweets 6 likes
      Show this thread
    5. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 17 Mar 2020

      Ok, so that's out of the way, Australia has ~24 million people A very rough guess is that in total around 10% of the population will be infected (again NOT A PREDICTION)

      1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
      Show this thread
    6. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 17 Mar 2020

      We know that somewhere around 5% of people who are infected get hospitalized If that's true, then our estimate is 24,000,000 (people)*0.1 (infected) 0.05 (hospital rate)*7 (bed-days per hospitalization) = 840,000 bed-days that are needed

      1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
      Show this thread
    7. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 17 Mar 2020

      Now, if the epidemic lasts 10 weeks, that's an average of 840,000/(7*10) = 12,000 beds needed per day Remember, our capacity is ~6,000 That is perhaps doable, but not great

      1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
      Show this thread
    8. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 17 Mar 2020

      If the epidemic lasts for 22 weeks, however, the average drops to 840,000/(7*22) = 5,450 That's within our capacity! Much better

      1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
      Show this thread
    9. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 17 Mar 2020

      Now, this calculation hides the truth, because in fact most of those hospitalizations during the epidemic will be during the "peak", which means there will likely be a period where the hospitals are over capacity regardless of what we do

      1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
      Show this thread
    10. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 17 Mar 2020

      However, it gives you some idea of why we want to slow the epidemic down as much as possible #FlattenTheCurvepic.twitter.com/iv1vQEpT4P

      1 reply 0 retweets 6 likes
      Show this thread
      Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 17 Mar 2020

      And, finally, remember that NONE OF THESE NUMBERS ARE TRUE/PREDICTIONS THESE ARE JUST VERY ROUGH GUESSES TO ILLUSTRATE A POINT fin

      3:19 PM - 17 Mar 2020
      • 4 Likes
      • Fully Vaxed Shivam (he/they) 🏳️‍🌈 Carol Fenton Alan B. Holloway Chambi wa Chairika
      0 replies 0 retweets 4 likes

      Loading seems to be taking a while.

      Twitter may be over capacity or experiencing a momentary hiccup. Try again or visit Twitter Status for more information.

        Promoted Tweet

        false

        • © 2021 Twitter
        • About
        • Help Center
        • Terms
        • Privacy policy
        • Cookies
        • Ads info