The points he makes are not unreasonable - closing society comes with enormous costs The thing is, no country that is currently coping with an epidemic is going to prioritize EVIDENCE over LIVES
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Can you imagine what would happen if we used our limited testing facilities to collect and sample a random segment of the population? It would be chaos!pic.twitter.com/qNUvB0t1JQ
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And this is, I think, pretty irresponsible to say Yes, the death rate ~may~ be lower It is unlikely at this point, however, that it will be lower that 0.3% That is still extraordinarily highpic.twitter.com/T5tXhTGWCf
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Part of the issue about coronavirus is that it is a NOVEL disease That means that no one has immunity to it, unlike our other seasonal issues
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What that means is that, without action, most people will get infected Even 0.3% of the US population is a staggering number of people
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I also don't know a single expert in infectious disease who thinks that the death rate will be this low, everything I've heard points to somewhere between 0.5-1%
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With reference to the viral containment curves, what would you think is on the x-axis? This hospital doctor suggested 17 years to flatten the Coronavirus curvehttps://twitter.com/juniordrblog/status/1238946196330369024?s=12 …
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There’s a reason why we call it scientific *theory* - because it’s constantly evolving. But that doesn’t mean waiting for what may or may not be better info. We act on the best info we have now. If we get better information down the toad, then we adapt.
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Did you read about the Italian town that tested all 3000 residents? True? Useful?
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Imagine waiting for reliable data in a pandemic of a new organism. “Look we don’t know what the death rate is until we let enough people die under different circumstances ok”
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Exactly! Such a naive view, as if perfect data is the priority right now
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