Unofficially, have heard we can expect or should prepare for around 18,000 cases by Easter #COVID19https://twitter.com/NickAberle/status/1238755034638069761 …
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Replying to @coopesdetat
This depends on people’s behaviour. Doubling every 4 days gets you to 30,000 cases by April 12 but if it’s every 5 days then it’s about 12,000 or every 6 days 7,500. But go to a shopping centre & all the cafes & food courts are full
people have no idea. They just hoard
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Replying to @SimonMonk @coopesdetat
Doubling time in Australia is currently 3 days. Where does that get us by Easter...? https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus
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Replying to @ACTINOSProject @SimonMonk
Was talking to an epidemiologist this morning about the projections. They put doubling time at 4 days. 5,000 cases by end of March, > 100,000 by end of Mauly. BUT if we get doubling time out to a week with public health measures we reduce that to 1,000 and 5,000 respectively
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Replying to @coopesdetat @SimonMonk
Again, the data from
@WHO "up to and including March 15th" suggests that we are at 3 days. Funny the difference just a day makes. https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus1 reply 1 retweet 2 likes -
Replying to @ACTINOSProject @coopesdetat and
If that's the case: Today: 319 March 19th: 638 March 22nd: 1,272 March 25th: 2,544 March 28th: 5,088 March 31st: 10,176 April 3rd: 20,352 April 6th: 40,704 April 9th: 81,408 Bringing us up to a bonny Easter total of... wait for it... April 12th: 162,816 Happy Easter, everyone.pic.twitter.com/fMGfhgHuzB
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Replying to @ACTINOSProject @coopesdetat and
Obviously these are the numbers with no intervention. The have got to be lower, even if we do the most marginal of interventions. But with a doubling time of 3 days (according to
@WHO at the moment) or even 4 days, I'm not sure what is getting us down to 18,000 cases... Anyone?1 reply 1 retweet 2 likes -
Tapping in people waaaaay smarter than me at this point: @epi_punk
@GidMK@engagedpractx@peripatetical@trentyarwood. I can only report what I have been told, and that this is internal modelling2 replies 1 retweet 2 likes
Short answer - doubling time isn't fixed, if you ran the same calculation last week it would've been 5-6 days. Modelling is hard
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Replying to @GidMK @coopesdetat and
Known fact: social distancing/ lockdown reduces transmission from whatever it is to still scary numbers. Stick to the known historical and very recent facts if you don’t believe projections.
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