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GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Verified account
@GidMK

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Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

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    1. Amy Coopes‏Verified account @coopesdetat 15 Mar 2020

      Amy Coopes Retweeted Nick Aberle

      Unofficially, have heard we can expect or should prepare for around 18,000 cases by Easter #COVID19https://twitter.com/NickAberle/status/1238755034638069761 …

      Amy Coopes added,

      Nick Aberle @NickAberle
      ITALY Feb 24: 224 cases 3 weeks later: 17,000 cases. AUSTRALIA Today: 200 cases 3 weeks later? Seems worth doing a *fair bit* to avoid that fate.
      Show this thread
      26 replies 130 retweets 221 likes
      Show this thread
    2. Simon Monk  ⚡️ ☀️ 💨 🔋 🚘‏ @SimonMonk 15 Mar 2020
      Replying to @coopesdetat

      This depends on people’s behaviour. Doubling every 4 days gets you to 30,000 cases by April 12 but if it’s every 5 days then it’s about 12,000 or every 6 days 7,500. But go to a shopping centre & all the cafes & food courts are full 🤷‍♂️ people have no idea. They just hoard 🧻

      1 reply 1 retweet 1 like
    3. David Caldicott‏ @ACTINOSProject 15 Mar 2020
      Replying to @SimonMonk @coopesdetat

      Doubling time in Australia is currently 3 days. Where does that get us by Easter...? https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus 

      1 reply 2 retweets 3 likes
    4. Amy Coopes‏Verified account @coopesdetat 15 Mar 2020
      Replying to @ACTINOSProject @SimonMonk

      Was talking to an epidemiologist this morning about the projections. They put doubling time at 4 days. 5,000 cases by end of March, > 100,000 by end of Mauly. BUT if we get doubling time out to a week with public health measures we reduce that to 1,000 and 5,000 respectively

      2 replies 1 retweet 3 likes
    5. David Caldicott‏ @ACTINOSProject 15 Mar 2020
      Replying to @coopesdetat @SimonMonk

      Again, the data from @WHO "up to and including March 15th" suggests that we are at 3 days. Funny the difference just a day makes. https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus 

      1 reply 1 retweet 2 likes
    6. David Caldicott‏ @ACTINOSProject 15 Mar 2020
      Replying to @ACTINOSProject @coopesdetat and

      If that's the case: Today: 319 March 19th: 638 March 22nd: 1,272 March 25th: 2,544 March 28th: 5,088 March 31st: 10,176 April 3rd: 20,352 April 6th: 40,704 April 9th: 81,408 Bringing us up to a bonny Easter total of... wait for it... April 12th: 162,816 Happy Easter, everyone.pic.twitter.com/fMGfhgHuzB

      2 replies 9 retweets 8 likes
    7. David Caldicott‏ @ACTINOSProject 15 Mar 2020
      Replying to @ACTINOSProject @coopesdetat and

      Obviously these are the numbers with no intervention. The have got to be lower, even if we do the most marginal of interventions. But with a doubling time of 3 days (according to @WHO at the moment) or even 4 days, I'm not sure what is getting us down to 18,000 cases... Anyone?

      1 reply 1 retweet 2 likes
    8. Amy Coopes‏Verified account @coopesdetat 15 Mar 2020
      Replying to @ACTINOSProject @SimonMonk @WHO

      Tapping in people waaaaay smarter than me at this point: @epi_punk @GidMK @engagedpractx @peripatetical @trentyarwood. I can only report what I have been told, and that this is internal modelling

      2 replies 1 retweet 2 likes
      Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 15 Mar 2020
      Replying to @coopesdetat @ACTINOSProject and

      Short answer - doubling time isn't fixed, if you ran the same calculation last week it would've been 5-6 days. Modelling is hard

      8:53 PM - 15 Mar 2020
      • 2 Retweets
      • 4 Likes
      • Daniel Reeders 🏳️‍⚧️ messi Matt Mason Erin Riley Amy Coopes
      1 reply 2 retweets 4 likes
        1. flying shiny toaster  ☘️ 🎗‏ @deanprocter 15 Mar 2020
          Replying to @GidMK @coopesdetat and

          Known fact: social distancing/ lockdown reduces transmission from whatever it is to still scary numbers. Stick to the known historical and very recent facts if you don’t believe projections.

          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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