Here's a quick very crude graph I made to show you how problematic models are X-axis is days, y-axis is number of cases. Different lines represent different doubling rates for COVID-19 cases in Australiapic.twitter.com/KCXMt7a7bV
Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him
You can add location information to your Tweets, such as your city or precise location, from the web and via third-party applications. You always have the option to delete your Tweet location history. Learn more
Add this Tweet to your website by copying the code below. Learn more
Add this video to your website by copying the code below. Learn more
By embedding Twitter content in your website or app, you are agreeing to the Twitter Developer Agreement and Developer Policy.
| Country | Code | For customers of |
|---|---|---|
| United States | 40404 | (any) |
| Canada | 21212 | (any) |
| United Kingdom | 86444 | Vodafone, Orange, 3, O2 |
| Brazil | 40404 | Nextel, TIM |
| Haiti | 40404 | Digicel, Voila |
| Ireland | 51210 | Vodafone, O2 |
| India | 53000 | Bharti Airtel, Videocon, Reliance |
| Indonesia | 89887 | AXIS, 3, Telkomsel, Indosat, XL Axiata |
| Italy | 4880804 | Wind |
| 3424486444 | Vodafone | |
| » See SMS short codes for other countries | ||
This timeline is where you’ll spend most of your time, getting instant updates about what matters to you.
Hover over the profile pic and click the Following button to unfollow any account.
When you see a Tweet you love, tap the heart — it lets the person who wrote it know you shared the love.
The fastest way to share someone else’s Tweet with your followers is with a Retweet. Tap the icon to send it instantly.
Add your thoughts about any Tweet with a Reply. Find a topic you’re passionate about, and jump right in.
Get instant insight into what people are talking about now.
Follow more accounts to get instant updates about topics you care about.
See the latest conversations about any topic instantly.
Catch up instantly on the best stories happening as they unfold.
Here's a quick very crude graph I made to show you how problematic models are X-axis is days, y-axis is number of cases. Different lines represent different doubling rates for COVID-19 cases in Australiapic.twitter.com/KCXMt7a7bV
The point here is NOT that any of these are correct It's that SMALL changes in the model can have BIG impacts
For example, if we halve the doubling rate (from 4 to 8 days) it doesn't just halve the number of cases - we go from >40,000 cases by Easter to less than 1/10th of that number!pic.twitter.com/oNuYrKSJbF
Models are only as good as your assumptions, and since we don't know much that is concrete about #COVID19, it's worth being cautious about interpreting any predictions at the moment
My concern. Say we successfully cut the doubling rate in half through social distancing. The worst is avoided, hospitals aren’t over run, and with proper treatment, the mortality isn’t terrible. Next time, will people think we over reacted?
They they think we are overreacting than we don't react enough
Twitter may be over capacity or experiencing a momentary hiccup. Try again or visit Twitter Status for more information.